EUR\/USD, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimlerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden enerji ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 aksatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin piyasalarca yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesiyle, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yatay seyretti. Parite 1,1438 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015fla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. Petrol bu hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 y\u00fckseldi; bu durum, ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde haziran enflasyonunun beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelerek k\u0131sa vadeli faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclemesine ra\u011fmen, \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131\u201d politika olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tuttu.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin, haziranda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelecek haftaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi %2,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 beklenirken, piyasalar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndaki bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tamamen fiyatl\u0131yor. ABD\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli bir Fed hamlesine ili\u015fkin fiyatlama gev\u015fedi; ancak CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %75 seviyesinde ima ediyor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 100,35\u2019e dokunduktan sonra 100,76 civar\u0131nda yatay kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi temmuzda 49,5\u2019ten 54,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek 51\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k g\u00f6sterge %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ilave enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Brent petrol\u00fcnde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak korunmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimler nedeniyle petrol\u00fcn bu hafta %12 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131yla enerji volatilitesi yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Brent\u2019in 90 dolar seviyelerine y\u00f6neldi\u011fi arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. \u015eimdi korunma almak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki arz kesintileri derinle\u015firse d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc maruziyet sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Halen 1,1438 civar\u0131nda konsolide olan EUR\/USD paritesi i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan bir volatilite k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na uzun strangle opsiyon stratejisini \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasa bug\u00fcn sakin g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, haziran ay\u0131ndaki yumu\u015fak enflasyon ile y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eli\u015fki muhtemelen sert bir hareketi tetikleyecek. Tarihsel olarak, jeopolitik gerilim ortam\u0131nda yatay seyrin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc benzer d\u00f6nemler, merkez bankas\u0131 toplant\u0131lar\u0131 tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir 150 piplik k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mla sonu\u00e7land\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz piyasalar\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadeli Fed faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na temkinli kal\u0131rken eyl\u00fcl vadeli Euribor sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ECB\u2019nin gelecek hafta faizi %2,25\u2019te tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor; ancak yap\u0131\u015fkan enerji fiyatlar\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan, bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD enflasyon beklentilerinin %4,2\u2019ye gerilemesi sonras\u0131nda, piyasalar\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar Fed art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in bi\u00e7ti\u011fi %75 olas\u0131l\u0131k bize g\u00f6re art\u0131k y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin mevcut 100,76 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 100,35\u2019ten son d\u00f6nemdeki toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 muhtemel; zira temel veriler agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden ziyade istikrar kazanan bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel e\u011filimler, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri %3,3\u2019te \u00e7\u0131pal\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, aktif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fer kazanc\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n