{"id":51185,"date":"2026-07-17T23:30:26","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:30:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-petrol-sicramasi-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-piyasalar-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-daha-yuksek-fiyatliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T23:30:26","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T23:30:26","slug":"orta-dogudaki-petrol-sicramasi-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-piyasalar-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-daha-yuksek-fiyatliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-petrol-sicramasi-dolari-desteklerken-sterlin-geriledi-piyasalar-fed-faiz-artisi-olasiligini-daha-yuksek-fiyatliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklerken sterlin geriledi; piyasalar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sterlin ikinci seansta da geriledi; GBP\/USD, 1,3480\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra %0,22 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,3449\u2019a indi. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n petrol\u00fc y\u00fckseltmesi ve dolar\u0131 desteklemesi parite \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. WTI %1,50\u2019den fazla art\u0131\u015fla varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80,78 dolara y\u00fckselirken, ay genelindeki kazanc\u0131 %13\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na dair haberler ve petrol tesislerini hedef alabilecek olas\u0131 misilleme uyar\u0131lar\u0131 bu hareketi destekledi. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n gelecek hafta Ba\u015fbakan olmas\u0131 beklenirken, Hazine Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor of the Exchequer) i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir isme ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan sterlin haftal\u0131k bazda h\u00e2l\u00e2 %0,4 primliydi.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni endeksi temmuzda 50,7\u2019den 54\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. Bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye gerilerken, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Prime Terminal verileri, piyasalar\u0131n 28 Ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %61 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde temmuz karar\u0131nda \u201cde\u011fi\u015fiklik yok\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %76 seviyesinde fiyatlan\u0131yordu. Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD 1,3451 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc SMA 1,3381\u2019de ve RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 56,9 seviyesindeydi; diren\u00e7 olarak 1,3487 ve 1,3498 seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Petrol Fiyat Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n Etkileri ve Sterlin Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn bu ay %13 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda art\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ani petrol s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019ni (OVX) sert \u015fekilde yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker ve bu etki h\u0131zla G10 d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na yay\u0131l\u0131r. K\u00fcresel enflasyon endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelirken, fiyat aksiyonundaki beklenen dalgalanmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in GBP\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan \u0130ngiliz Sterlini, 1,3381\u2019deki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) deste\u011finin hemen \u00fczerinde tutunuyor; ancak 1,3498\u2019e yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Paritenin 1,3500 \u00fczerini k\u0131rmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir short squeeze\u2019i tetikleyebilir; bu da vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek getiri potansiyelli bir tercih h\u00e2line getirir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, jeopolitik gerilimin t\u0131rmanarak ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fcvenli liman talebini art\u0131rmas\u0131 durumunda 1,3300\u2019e do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131yla (protective put) hedge edilmesi de\u011ferlendirilmeli.<\/p>\n

Siyasi De\u011fi\u015fimler, Makro Veriler ve Merkez Bankas\u0131 Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta yeni Ba\u015fbakan olarak g\u00f6reve ba\u015flayacak olmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 Hazine Bakan\u0131 tercihi, sterlin opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda \u015fimdiden spek\u00fclatif dalgalar yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftan\u0131n Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k istihdam ve enflasyon verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zira Britanya\u2019da hizmet enflasyonu tarihsel olarak %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir kat\u0131l\u0131k sergiledi. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6nemli yurti\u00e7i a\u00e7\u0131klamalar fiyatlanmadan \u00f6nce ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktaki olas\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f fiyatlamalardan yararlanmak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019lerini (calendar spreads) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n

Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ABD faiz piyasalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in 29 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tutma ihtimalini \u015fu anda %76 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Ancak Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 y\u00fcksek seyrederken, petroldeki olas\u0131 yeni bir ralli Fed\u2019i ekim toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u0131zla \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye itebilir; nitekim 28 Ekim i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdiden %61 d\u00fczeyinde. Enerji maliyetleri t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrse olas\u0131 bir \u015fahinle\u015fmeye pozisyon almak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli Eurodolar veya Teminatl\u0131 Gecelik Finansman Oran\u0131 (SOFR) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u015foku sterlini vurdu: GBP\/USD 1,3449\u2019a indi. Ortado\u011fu gerilimi WTI\u2019yi 80,78 dolara ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Fed ekimde %61 art\u0131\u015f fiyatlan\u0131yor; 1,3498 kritik diren\u00e7. Straddle \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50045,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t