WTI Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 81,10 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %2,76 y\u00fckselirken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla haftal\u0131k bazda %13\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kazanca y\u00f6neldi. Son hareket, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a ait askeri tesislere y\u00f6nelik yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), operasyonlar\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kabiliyetlerini zay\u0131flatmay\u0131 hedefledi\u011fini ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki faaliyetin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) ise sald\u0131r\u0131lar devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan hi\u00e7bir petrol veya gaz ihracat\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7meyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; Katar da bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n engellendi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geli\u015f, deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bo\u011faz noktalar\u0131na oda\u011f\u0131 keskinle\u015ftirirken, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019i kapatma tehdidiyle dikkatler Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na da \u00e7evrildi. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz sevkiyatlar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli bir durman\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi risklerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Commerzbank ise her iki g\u00fczerg\u00e2htan birinin bloke edilmesinin fiyatlar\u0131 daha da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve daha \u00f6nce yolda olan kargolar\u0131n var\u0131\u015f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in\u2019in ham petrol ithalat\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f potansiyeline i\u015faret etti. WTI (West Texas Intermediate), ABD men\u015feli hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc bir ham petrol referans\u0131d\u0131r ve Cushing teslimat noktas\u0131 \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131l\u0131r; fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik kesintiler, OPEC kararlar\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilir. Stok verileri, API ve EIA\u2019n\u0131n haftal\u0131k raporlar\u0131yla izlenir; bu iki set veri zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde birbirinden %1 i\u00e7inde sapar.<\/p>\n\n WTI ham petrol\u00fc, haftal\u0131k bazda %13\u2019l\u00fck sert y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 81 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015farken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev piyasada a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varillik (k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si) ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda tam blokaj riski, standart arz modellerini ge\u00e7ici olarak i\u015flevsiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, keskin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerinden ve artan z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanan stratejilere y\u00f6nelmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n Bu riski y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na, volatil vadeli i\u015flemlerde s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z sermaye riski almadan daha fazla yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in WTI\u2019da \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalardan yararlanmak isteyenler i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda uzun straddle stratejileri olduk\u00e7a uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; zira Bab\u00fclmendep, k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019unu ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak 2019\u2019daki Saudi Aramco\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi jeopolitik arz \u015foklar\u0131nda petrol\u00fcn z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; mevcut ko\u015fullarda benzer bir desenin tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. <\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n Ayr\u0131ca haftal\u0131k EIA stok raporlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor; \u00f6zellikle ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131, \u015fimdiden yakla\u015f\u0131k 440 milyon varil seviyesindeki be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na inen mevsimsel \u00e7ekilmeler g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda. ABD stoklar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken \u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 sevkiyat duraksamalar\u0131 da devam ederse, WTI\u2019\u0131n A\u011fustos sonuna do\u011fru 90 dolar e\u015fi\u011fini test etmesi kolayla\u015fabilir. K\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlarda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; zira ani ve \u201cpatlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d bir squeeze riski ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde tansiyon zirvede: WTI 81,10 dolarda; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i %2,76, haftal\u0131k %13+ y\u00fckseldi. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\/Bab\u00fclmendep resti, arz \u015fokunu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor; oynakl\u0131k, opsiyon ve stok verileri kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\tT\u00fcrev Piyasada Oynakl\u0131k ve Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n\n
Stok Dinamikleri ve Fiyat Riski Y\u00f6netimi<\/h3>\n\n