USD\/CHF Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,8070 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,22 geriledi. ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni verilerinin Dolar\u2019a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek vermesine kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na (CHF) y\u00f6nelik talep paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc verisi Temmuz\u2019da Haziran\u2019daki 49,5 seviyesinden 54,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek beklentileri a\u015ft\u0131; Mevcut Ko\u015fullar Endeksi de 47,7\u2019den 54,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Beklentiler Endeksi 50,7\u2019den 54\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, enflasyon beklentileri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti: 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye geriledi, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti ise %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Verilerin ard\u0131ndan Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc toparlanmay\u0131 takiben 100,80 civar\u0131nda tutundu.<\/p>\n\n
Dolar, beklentilerden daha zay\u0131f gelen ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) ve \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ndeki (\u00dcFE) s\u00fcrpriz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalini d\u0131\u015flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7arken, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerde ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef almas\u0131 halinde Yemen\u2019deki Husilere K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz petrol rotas\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya haz\u0131rlanma mesaj\u0131 verdi\u011fine dair haberler ve Bender Abbas, Ke\u015fm ve Ahvaz\u2019da patlama haberleri (Kuveyt\u2019te ve Basra\u2019ya kadar patlama seslerinin duyuldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin raporlar) ile destek buldu. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda ise \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB), Haziran\u2019da politika faizini %0\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon risklerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CHF\u2019nin 0,8070 civar\u0131nda tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimler, \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman talebini besliyor. ABD t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi Temmuz\u2019da 54,4\u2019e y\u00fckselse de, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artan jeopolitik risklerde kalmaya devam ediyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ve \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m\u201d b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015f\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ani trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda USD\/CHF z\u0131mni volatilitesi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de olas\u0131 tedarik zinciri aksamalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin piyasa endi\u015fesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak benzer jeopolitik \u015foklarda, bu paritede 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n riskten korunmaya y\u00f6nelmesiyle birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %15 ila %20 s\u0131\u00e7rayabiliyor. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, fiyat hareketindeki beklenen sert dalgalanmalardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kan bir Frang\u2019\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale ge\u00e7mi\u015fi iyi bilinen SNB\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor. SNB Haziran\u2019da politika faizini %0\u2019da tutsa da, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin vadesiz mevduatlar\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri, ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla yap\u0131lan aktif m\u00fcdahale d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesi halinde sert ve agresif bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131, \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CHF call opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak bu olas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale riskini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD enflasyon verileri yumu\u015fuyor; son T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisini tamamen masadan kald\u0131rd\u0131. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 genellikle Dolar\u2019\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutsa da, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde 100,80 seviyesi ge\u00e7ici bir dengelenme i\u015faretleri veriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck prim maliyetiyle olas\u0131 bir USD toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in risk reversal stratejilerinin\u2014call al\u0131p put satman\u0131n\u2014kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n