Yenilenen jeopolitik risk, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak y\u00f6nlendirilen Suudi ihracat\u0131n\u0131n kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir koridor olan Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatma tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131na dikkatleri \u00e7ekiyor. Brent, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 y\u00fckseldi ve Bab el-Mendeb\u2019de ya\u015fanacak bir aksama fiyatlar \u00fczerinde ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. Son g\u00fcnlerde, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 de ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa temelleri de g\u00fcndemde. Petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik ihracat yasa\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ham petrol i\u015fleme faaliyetleri temmuzda yeniden artabilir. Buna paralel olarak, haziranda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7meyi ba\u015faran tankerlerin \u00c7in limanlar\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131yla bu ay ham petrol ithalat\u0131 artabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan askeri gerilim nedeniyle Brent ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi kritik Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidiyle, oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu jeopolitik risklerin k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde fiyatlanmaya devam etmesi nedeniyle sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, \u00c7in\u2019in bu ay ithalat\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesiyle fiziki talep s\u0131k\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor. Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k verileri, haziranda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en tankerlerde biriken y\u00fck\u00fcn nihayet \u00c7in limanlar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve fiziki ham petrol talebini art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu arz-talep uyumsuzlu\u011fu tarihsel olarak en yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 derin bir backwardation\u2019a iter ve uzun takvim spreadlerini (calendar spread) destekler.<\/p>\n\n
Ablukan\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi halinde ani bir arz \u015fokuna kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara Brent\u2019te vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bo\u011fa call spreadleri (bull call spread) kullanmak prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir ko\u015funun yukar\u0131 potansiyelini yakalamaya imk\u00e2n verebilir. Oynakl\u0131k i\u015flemcileri i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019in tamamen kapanmas\u0131 gibi kuyruk riskini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, straddle\u2019lar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131kta (implied volatility) uzun pozisyon almak temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6nceki K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz krizlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, benzer ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k aksamalar\u0131 navlun oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ikiye katlanmas\u0131na ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n haftalar i\u00e7inde %15 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bab el-Mendeb rotas\u0131 kapan\u0131rsa, tankerlerin Afrika\u2019n\u0131n \u00dcmit Burnu \u00fczerinden yeniden y\u00f6nlendirilmesi transit s\u00fcrelerine 10 ila 14 g\u00fcn ekleyecek. Bu arz gecikmesinin Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc (sweet) ham petrol t\u00fcrlerinde ciddi bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma yaratmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da Brent-WTI spreadlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n