{"id":51171,"date":"2026-07-17T19:59:06","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T19:59:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/michigan-universitesinin-bir-yillik-enflasyon-beklentisi-geriledi-fed-uzerindeki-baski-hafiflerken-tahvil-hisse-ve-euro-deger-kazandi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T19:59:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T19:59:06","slug":"michigan-universitesinin-bir-yillik-enflasyon-beklentisi-geriledi-fed-uzerindeki-baski-hafiflerken-tahvil-hisse-ve-euro-deger-kazandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/michigan-universitesinin-bir-yillik-enflasyon-beklentisi-geriledi-fed-uzerindeki-baski-hafiflerken-tahvil-hisse-ve-euro-deger-kazandi\/","title":{"rendered":"Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi geriledi; Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 hafiflerken tahvil, hisse ve euro de\u011fer kazand\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD\u2019de Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) taraf\u0131ndan \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen bir y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentileri, daha \u00f6nce %4,6 iken temmuz ay\u0131nda %4,2\u2019ye geriledi. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, hanehalk\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yumu\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Son veri, ayl\u0131k bazda 0,4 puanl\u0131k bir gerilemeye denk geliyor. UoM serisi, piyasalar\u0131n enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme s\u00fcrecindeki ilerlemeyi de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimleri izlemek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan takip ediliyor.<\/p>\n

Fed Politikas\u0131 ve Sabit Getirili Piyasalar A\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Sonu\u00e7lar<\/h3>\n

Michigan \u00dcniversitesi 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentilerinin %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye gerilemesi, t\u00fcketicilerin enflasyon endi\u015fesinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn, Fed\u2019e \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ara verme veya art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatma konusunda ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. T\u00fcrev i\u015flemi yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerini h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ayarlamas\u0131 gerekir; zira piyasa, daha \u201crahat\u201d bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamaya \u015fimdiden ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak, 2023 ortas\u0131nda enflasyon beklentileri benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte geriledi\u011finde, g\u00f6sterge tahvil getirileri sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Hazine tahvili fiyatlar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bug\u00fcn bu e\u011filimden faydalanmak i\u00e7in 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, tahvilleri do\u011frudan a\u00e7\u0131\u011fa satman\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z riskini almadan, d\u00fc\u015fen getirilerden do\u011frudan kazan\u00e7 elde etmeyi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n

Daha Geni\u015f Piyasa ve D\u00f6viz \u0130\u015flemleri Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 da fayda sa\u011flayabilir; zira daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon beklentileri genellikle Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX) bask\u0131lar ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme hisselerini destekler. Ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz teknoloji \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki rahatlama rallisini yakalamak i\u00e7in Nasdaq-100 endeksinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019i (bull call spread) kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, S&P 500\u2019de zarar yazma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 satarak, piyasa korkusu azald\u0131k\u00e7a istikrarl\u0131 prim geliri elde edilebilir.<\/p>\n

Son olarak, agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kaybetmesini bekliyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, daha yumu\u015fak bir enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni bir ay i\u00e7inde h\u0131zla %2 ila %3 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bunu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, Euro\u2019nun Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak \u201cgreenback\u201d zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgas\u0131na kat\u0131labiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fcrpriz gev\u015feme: Michigan 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,6\u2019dan %4,2\u2019ye indi. Fed\u2019in frene basma alan\u0131 art\u0131yor; tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015febilir. Strateji: 10Y tahvil call, Nasdaq bull spread, EURUSD call.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51171"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51171\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50107"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}