{"id":51168,"date":"2026-07-17T18:59:10","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T18:59:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ing-dolarin-zimni-volatilitesinin-2021-sonrasi-en-dusuk-seviyeye-indigini-goruyor-piyasalar-sakin-olsa-da-yukari-yonlu-risk-uyarisi-yapiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T18:59:10","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T18:59:10","slug":"ing-dolarin-zimni-volatilitesinin-2021-sonrasi-en-dusuk-seviyeye-indigini-goruyor-piyasalar-sakin-olsa-da-yukari-yonlu-risk-uyarisi-yapiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ing-dolarin-zimni-volatilitesinin-2021-sonrasi-en-dusuk-seviyeye-indigini-goruyor-piyasalar-sakin-olsa-da-yukari-yonlu-risk-uyarisi-yapiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ING, dolar\u0131n z\u0131mni volatilitesinin 2021 sonras\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; piyasalar sakin olsa da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk uyar\u0131s\u0131 yap\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ING, DXY a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin 5,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fini; Ocak, May\u0131s ve Haziran diplerini k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Noel 2025\u2019teki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi\u011fini belirtiyor. Bu, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki askeri yeniden t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ve yeni bir Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc riskine ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. ING, s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131; Mart-May\u0131s d\u00f6neminde faizler ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131 sert hareket ederken volatilitenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131yor. Yapay zek\u00e2 destekli hisse senedi dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n para birimlerini \u201c\u00e7apa\u201dlamas\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131ndaki carry-trade zeminini uzatmas\u0131 da bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekledi.<\/p>\n

Banka, yak\u0131n vadede hem FX volatilitesi hem de dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risklerin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc asimetrik oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokunu yaln\u0131zca k\u0131smen fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131 halinde, do\u011frusal olmayan (non-lineer) y\u00fckseli\u015flerin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin azalmas\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve ABD dolar getiri e\u011frisinin k\u0131sa vadeli ucunun (front end) daha g\u00fcvercin esnekli\u011fe izin vermesi senaryosunu da masaya koyuyor. Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda ING, yaz sonras\u0131nda dolar\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Volatilite ve FX Piyasas\u0131nda Sakinlik<\/h3>\n

Halihaz\u0131rda DXY a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilitenin %5,50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferek 2021\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki son jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelere ve Fed politika beklentilerindeki de\u011fi\u015fime ra\u011fmen, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc sakin. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir hisse senedi piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u00e7apa\u201dlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu sessiz ortam, FX opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ucuz hale getirdi.<\/p>\n

Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n yaz bitmeden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanan FX volatilitesini aktif \u015fekilde sat\u0131n almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli ABD dolar\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya volatilite straddle\u2019lar\u0131 almak \u015fu anda asimetrik bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak G7 FX volatilitesi %6\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, sert bir yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama \u00f6ncesinde bu seviyelerde uzun s\u00fcre kalmas\u0131 nadirdir.<\/p>\n

Stratejiler ve Dolar G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; Brent petrol Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerine son derece duyarl\u0131 ve do\u011frusal olmayan bir dolar rallisini tetikleyebilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 aniden s\u0131\u00e7rarsa, FX volatilitesiyle birlikte dolar\u0131n da h\u0131zla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi muhtemel. Buna kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u00e7in, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar emtiaya ba\u011fl\u0131 para birimi paritelerinde uzun volatilite stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n

Yaz sonras\u0131ndan sonbahara ge\u00e7erken, baz senaryomuz ABD dolar\u0131nda daha geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir zay\u0131flamaya d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi so\u011fur ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131 gev\u015ferse, Fed\u2019in daha g\u00fcvercin bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in daha fazla alan olu\u015facakt\u0131r. Eyl\u00fcl sonuna do\u011fru, uzun-USD taktik opsiyonlardan k\u0131sa-USD pozisyonlara ge\u00e7i\u015fe haz\u0131rlan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015eok uyar\u0131s\u0131: DXY 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite %5,50 alt\u0131na inerek 2021\u2019den beri dipte. Jeopolitik\/Fed riskine ra\u011fmen sakinlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ING, ucuz opsiyonla long vol\/long USD, sonbaharda USD zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t