Andy Burnham, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi lideri s\u0131fat\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda, Reuters\u2019\u0131n da h\u00fck\u00fcmet i\u00e7in bir \u015fablon olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi\u011fini belirtti\u011fi \u015fekilde, Greater Manchester Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak \u015firketlerle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma siciline dayanan i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir s\u00f6ylem ortaya koydu. Parti i\u00e7i s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeleri azaltmaya da \u00e7al\u0131\u015farak, b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fken sa\u011f\u0131n yenilemeyece\u011fini savundu ve farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flere sahip olduklar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcyeleri ask\u0131ya almayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya cezaland\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Kabinesine hen\u00fcz karar vermedi\u011fini, ancak parti yelpazesini kapsayaca\u011f\u0131 sinyalini verdi; daha az zehirli bir siyasi dil \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yaparken Reform Partisi\u2019ni kendi sahas\u0131nda ge\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da netle\u015ftirdi. Ekonomi cephesinde Burnham, temel mallar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki daha zay\u0131f kamu kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc daha zorlu enflasyon y\u00f6netimiyle ili\u015fkilendirerek, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir \u00e7izgiyi stratejik g\u00f6r\u00fclen sekt\u00f6rlerde daha fazla kamu m\u00fcdahalesiyle harmanlayan bir yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n i\u015faretini verdi. Sterlin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi: Haber yay\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada GBP\/USD 1,3430 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,35 yukar\u0131dayd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Andy Burnham liderli\u011finde \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 yanl\u0131s\u0131 bir platforma y\u00f6nelmesinin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fi istikrarl\u0131 bir zemin sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3430 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131, d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen istikrar lehine siyasi g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc geri plana itti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak bu t\u00fcr net siyasi ge\u00e7i\u015fler, k\u0131sa vadeli kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma e\u011filimi ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Burnham\u2019\u0131n enerji ve kamu hizmetleri gibi stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerde kamu m\u00fcdahalesine ilgi duymas\u0131, hedefli d\u00fczenleyici riskler yarat\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7eyrekte Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k enflasyonunun %2,2 civar\u0131nda seyretmesi beklenirken, ani fiyat tavan\u0131 (price cap) duyurular\u0131 hisse piyasalar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bozulmalara yol a\u00e7abilir. Olas\u0131 devlet m\u00fcdahalelerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla FTSE 100 kamu hizmetleri (utility) endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, sterlinin g\u00fcnl\u00fck %0,35\u2019lik istikrarl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi, y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filiminin korundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011fustos sonuna kadar 1,3550 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 hedefleyerek GBP\/USD paritesinde bull call spread kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji, Burnham\u2019\u0131n i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 dostu s\u00f6yleminin k\u00fcresel sermaye giri\u015flerini \u00e7ekmesi halinde getiriyi yakalarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility) e\u011frisindeki e\u011fimi izlemeli; mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sterlin call\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131n put\u2019lara k\u0131yasla daha pahal\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bir sonraki \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) politika toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde bu fiyatlama uyumsuzlu\u011fundan yararlanmak i\u00e7in ratio calendar spread kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. B\u00f6ylece prim erimesinden (theta) gelir elde ederken sterlinde kademeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeye (drift) kar\u015f\u0131 da pozisyonlu kal\u0131nabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n