{"id":51148,"date":"2026-07-17T14:29:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T14:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/rupi-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-kizildenizdeki-gerilimin-usd-inryi-desteklemesine-karsin-rbi-destegiyle-guclendi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T14:29:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T14:29:32","slug":"rupi-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-kizildenizdeki-gerilimin-usd-inryi-desteklemesine-karsin-rbi-destegiyle-guclendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/rupi-petrol-fiyatlari-ve-kizildenizdeki-gerilimin-usd-inryi-desteklemesine-karsin-rbi-destegiyle-guclendi\/","title":{"rendered":"Rupi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki gerilimin USD\/INR\u2019yi desteklemesine kar\u015f\u0131n RBI deste\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi hafta sonuna do\u011fru s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/INR yakla\u015f\u0131k 96,30 seviyesine geriledi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re merkez bankas\u0131, \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc olmakla birlikte hem spot hem de teslimats\u0131z forward (NDF) piyasalar\u0131nda neredeyse her g\u00fcn aktif. Hareket, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde geldi: 20 Temmuz vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,16 art\u0131\u015fla yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.700 rupi seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc ayl\u0131k zirve olan 7.832 rupiye yakla\u015ft\u0131; bu arka plan genellikle petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 para birimleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik risk ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131 halinde Yemen\u2019deki Husilere K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz petrol rotas\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,1 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 100,80 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasalar, haziran ay\u0131 ABD T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentilerden yumu\u015fak gelmesi sonras\u0131 Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentilerini azaltt\u0131. CME FedWatch, bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %10,2\u2019ye indirirken (bir hafta \u00f6nce %24,6), teknik tarafta USD\/INR 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019s\u0131 olan 95,55\u2019in \u00fczerinde kald\u0131; 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck RSI 62,99 seviyesinde ve 97,10 tepesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede diren\u00e7 izleniyor.<\/p>\n

USD\/INR Momentumuna Y\u00f6nelik \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, USD\/INR paritesinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun devam\u0131na oynayacak \u015fekilde bo\u011fa call spread stratejileri kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 veya yak\u0131n vadeli vadeli kontratlarda uzun (long) pozisyon almalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite 95,55 seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleyici. Mevcut momentum pariteyi ilk diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesinin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131rsa, 97,10 civar\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesinin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde test edilmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019de enerji arz\u0131 kesintisi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 2022 enerji krizi gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, \u00f6nemli deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koridorlar\u0131 tehdit alt\u0131ndayken Brent petrol\u00fcn kolayl\u0131kla %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Hindistan ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011finden, mevcut 7.700 rupi seviyesinin \u00fczerindeki kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak rupi \u00fczerinde a\u011f\u0131r bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 M\u00fcdahalesi ve Jeopolitik Belirsizlik Riskleri<\/h3>\n

RBI hem spot hem de forward piyasalarda aktif \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale ediyor olsa da tarih, merkez bankas\u0131 savunmalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli k\u00fcresel enerji \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2022\u2019deki piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda RBI, d\u00f6viz rezervlerinden 100 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yapmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen rupi ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 de\u011fer kaybetti. \u00d6zellikle m\u00fcdahalenin mevcut \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara USD\/INR y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca RBI m\u00fcdahalesine bel ba\u011flamamalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca faiz t\u00fcrevleri piyasas\u0131na da bakmak gerekir: CME FedWatch arac\u0131, bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca %10,2 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Yumu\u015fak faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc normalde dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131r; ancak t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi, Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde 100,80 civar\u0131nda g\u00fcvenli liman talebini y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015felerindeki ge\u00e7ici azalma nedeniyle risk-getiri oran\u0131 daha elveri\u015fli hale gelen USD\/INR call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rupi nefes ald\u0131 ama f\u0131rt\u0131na dinmedi: RBI\u2019nin m\u00fcdahalesiyle USD\/INR 96,30\u2019a indi. Petrol 7.700 rupi, K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz riski dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 95,55 \u00fcst\u00fc teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bullish.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51148","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51148"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51148\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51148"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51148"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51148"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}