GBP\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fcn i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde 219,00 b\u00f6lgesini yeniden ele ge\u00e7irdikten sonra, Ocak 2008\u2019den bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveden geri \u00e7ekilerek ikinci seansta da d\u00fczeltmesini derinle\u015ftirdi. Parite, erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 218,00\u2019lerin ortas\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sarkarken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n Japon yetkililerin yeni destekleyici ad\u0131mlar atabilece\u011fine dair piyasa hassasiyetiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Sterlin, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin bask\u0131s\u0131yla de\u011fer kaybetse de, daha geni\u015f makro ko\u015fullar daha sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7in alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz farklar\u0131 carry dinami\u011fini desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), Haziran\u2019da k\u0131sa vadeli politika faizini %1,0\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kararak 31 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) politika faizi ise %3,75 seviyesinde. Bu durum, yakla\u015f\u0131k 275 baz puanl\u0131k fark yaratarak JPY carry i\u015flemlerini destekliyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 jeopolitik riskler, olas\u0131 bir yen toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. \u00d6te yandan, azalan Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasi riski\u2014mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin iyile\u015fen alg\u0131yla birlikte\u2014GBP\u2019yi de destekliyor. Bunun arka plan\u0131nda, g\u00f6reve gelecek Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n \u015eabana Mahmood\u2019u Maliye Bakan\u0131 (Chancellor) olarak atayabilece\u011fine dair haberler ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisinin May\u0131s\u2019ta yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren veriler yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/JPY paritesinin 219,00 civar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131k zirvelerden a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 sarkt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na \u015fimdilik k\u0131sa pozisyonlara aceleyle girmemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Japon h\u00fck\u00fcmetinin olas\u0131 bir d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 teyakkuzda tutsa da, geni\u015f resimde y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde desteklenmeye devam ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tek tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleleri piyasa trendini tersine \u00e7evirmekten ziyade ge\u00e7ici olarak yava\u015flatma e\u011filiminde.<\/p>\n\n
Bu paritenin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn ana motoru, BoE\u2019nin %3,75 seviyesindeki faizine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k BoJ\u2019un %1,0\u2019daki faiziyle olu\u015fan 275 baz puanl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz fark\u0131. Bu getiri fark\u0131, getiri arayan k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in JPY carry i\u015flemini y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde cazip k\u0131lmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. M\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamak i\u00e7in bo\u011fa call spread gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyon stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi istikrar ve ekonominin son d\u00f6nemde yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nmesi nedeniyle Sterlin\u2019in diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131n\u0131 da bekliyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik riskler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ithal enerjiye y\u00fcksek ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle tarihsel olarak yeni zay\u0131flatma e\u011filimindedir. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ima edilen volatilite k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck geri \u00e7ekilmelerde prim al\u0131m\u0131 stratejilerini daha cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/JPY\u2019de yak\u0131n vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmelerin trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden ziyade al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce 219,00 \u00fczerindeki k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n teyit edildi\u011fi formasyonlar\u0131 beklemeli. Agresif ve devaml\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz s\u00fcrece, bu \u00e7aprazda en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n net bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n