{"id":51137,"date":"2026-07-17T11:29:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T11:29:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-guclenmesiyle-euro-sterlin-karsisinda-08500-seviyesine-dogru-toparlaniyor-hedge-getirileri-one-cikiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-17T11:29:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T11:29:19","slug":"ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-guclenmesiyle-euro-sterlin-karsisinda-08500-seviyesine-dogru-toparlaniyor-hedge-getirileri-one-cikiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/ecb-faiz-artisi-beklentilerinin-guclenmesiyle-euro-sterlin-karsisinda-08500-seviyesine-dogru-toparlaniyor-hedge-getirileri-one-cikiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerinin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle Euro sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 0,8500 seviyesine do\u011fru toparlan\u0131yor; hedge getirileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Euro Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc sterlin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselerek EUR\/GBP\u2019yi 0,8455 ile g\u00f6r\u00fclen 13 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesinin ard\u0131ndan yeniden 0,8500\u2019e do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen parite, haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,20 gerileyerek art arda d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kaydetme yolunda. Tek para birimine destek; risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme ve Reuters anketinde kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n %70\u2019inin temmuzdaki aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan eyl\u00fclde 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi sonras\u0131 Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerine ba\u011flan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

G\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde odak, Euro B\u00f6lgesi Haziran ay\u0131 nihai Uyumla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne (HICP) \u00e7evrilecek. Verinin, enflasyondaki yava\u015flamay\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki aydaki %3,2\u2019den %2,8\u2019e teyit etmesi bekleniyor; ancak s\u00f6z konusu veriler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00f6ncesine ait. Sterlin, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi t\u0131kan\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa ra\u011fmen son haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Piyasalar, bir sonraki kabinenin Maliye Bakan\u0131 Reeves\u2019in mali kurallar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisine odaklan\u0131rken, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki spek\u00fclasyonlar da sterlini destekledi.<\/p>\n

EUR\/GBP Toparlanmas\u0131ndan Yararlanma Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

EUR\/GBP\u2019de 0,8500\u2019e do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen ge\u00e7ici toparlanmadan yararlanmak isteyen t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite, haziran ortas\u0131ndan bu yana %2,20 d\u00fc\u015ferek 13 ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine inerken, mevcut rahatlama rallisi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc volatiliteyi yakalamak i\u00e7in uygun bir pencere sunuyor. Tarihsel olarak EUR\/GBP bu seviyelere geriledi\u011finde, k\u0131sa vadeli z\u0131mni volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler olan yakla\u015f\u0131k %5,5\u2019ten uzun d\u00f6nem ortalamas\u0131 %7\u2019ye do\u011fru ortalamaya d\u00f6nme e\u011filimi g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin %70\u2019inin eyl\u00fclde ECB faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu \u015fahinle\u015fmeyi faiz swaplar\u0131 \u00fczerinden fiyatlamak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde tavsiye edilir. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda kapanmas\u0131 Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden yukar\u0131 itti; bunun Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonundaki mevcut %2,8 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi tersine \u00e7evirmesini bekliyoruz. 2022\u2019de ham petrol\u00fcn sert y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nem gibi \u00f6nceki enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda Euro B\u00f6lgesi ithalat fiyatlar\u0131 %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu durum ECB\u2019yi daha agresif ad\u0131mlar atmaya zorlayabilir.<\/p>\n

A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 Uzayan Sterlin G\u00fcc\u00fcne Kar\u015f\u0131 Korunma<\/h3>\n

\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, sterlinin son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve korunma (hedge) i\u00e7in uygun hale geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Maliye Bakan\u0131 Reeves\u2019in mali kurallar\u0131na duyulan g\u00fcven sterlini destekli tutsa da, BoE faiz beklentileri piyasada zaten b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k verilerinin zay\u0131f gelmesi halinde ani bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paritenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olan (out-of-the-money) GBP sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/GBP 13 ay\u0131n dibinden 0,8500\u2019a toparlansa da d\u00f6rt haftad\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Piyasalar ECB\u2019nin eyl\u00fclde 25 bp art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve HICP\u2019yi izliyor. Strateji: k\u0131sa vadeli call, swap; sterlin i\u00e7in OTM put hedge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50104,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51137","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}