ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015finin ard\u0131ndan gev\u015fedi; 100,35 civar\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ayl\u0131k dipten ba\u015flayan toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olurken, 100,83 seviyesindeki %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Endeks 100,10\u2013100,65 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,05\u2019in biraz \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerinin beklentilerden daha yumu\u015fak gelmesi sonras\u0131 \u201chemen\u201d bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, t\u0131rmanan ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon risklerine yeniden odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131, 2026\u2019da en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde endeks, hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 100,55 civar\u0131ndaki 200 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131; ancak momentum g\u00f6stergeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretti (RSI 44\u2019e yak\u0131n, MACD s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif \u00fczerinde). Bu hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na net bir sarkma, \u00f6nce 100,22 ve 99,72 Fibonacci desteklerini; ard\u0131ndan 99,23 ve 98,52 seviyelerini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tarafta ise 100,83 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, DXY\u2019yi 101,00 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yarak 24 Haziran\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirve olan 101,80\u2019e do\u011fru ivmelendirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00e7eli\u015fkili makro sinyaller aras\u0131nda ilerlerken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) \u00fczerinde temkinli ve bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD T\u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,0\u2019a gerilemesi yak\u0131n vadede faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse de, jeopolitik gerilimlerin tetikledi\u011fi y\u00fckselen enerji maliyetleri dolar\u0131 desteklemeye devam ediyor. Bu belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na, endeksin \u015fu a\u015famada belirgin bir trend \u00fcretememesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon straddle\u2019lar\u0131 veya vertical spread\u2019lerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6rt saatlik grafikte 100,55 civar\u0131ndaki kritik 200 periyotluk Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na \u201ctemiz\u201d bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 100,22\u2019deki bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesine ve tarihsel talep alanlar\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen 99,72\u2019ye do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, at-the-money\u2019e yak\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanman\u0131n olduk\u00e7a etkili bir yolu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer taraftan, 100,83 seviyesindeki %23,6 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u00fcst diren\u00e7 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirmesi halinde, 101,00 \u00fczeri bir k\u0131r\u0131lma h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde 101,80\u2019deki y\u0131l i\u00e7i zirveyi hedefleyebilir. Bu iyimser senaryoda, prim riskini s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc yakalamak i\u00e7in bull call spread\u2019lere ge\u00e7ilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY, yumu\u015fak T\u00dcFE\/\u00dcFE sonras\u0131 Fed art\u0131\u015f beklentisi zay\u0131flay\u0131nca 100,10\u2013100,65 band\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130ran gerilimi USD\u2019yi tutuyor. 100,55 SMA kritik; 100,83 \u00fcst\u00fc 101,80\u2019e, alt\u0131 99,72\u2019ye a\u00e7\u0131k. Straddle\/spreaddler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t