WTI, ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa saatlerinde 79,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin olas\u0131 arz kesintisine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131rmas\u0131yla Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fine haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu. BBC\u2019nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flatarak savunma tesisleri dahil \u00e7e\u015fitli hedefleri vurdu. ABD ordusu, s\u00f6z konusu ad\u0131m\u0131n \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri kabiliyetlerini daha da zay\u0131flatmay\u0131\u201d ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ablukas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda bir gemiye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (boarding) ekledi.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC), ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u00fcrece H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden petrol ya da gaz ihracat\u0131na izin verilmeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Fars Haber Ajans\u0131, Kuveyt\u2019te \u00e7ok \u015fiddetli patlamalar\u0131n duyuldu\u011funu; sesin Basra\u2019da da rapor edildi\u011fini bildirdi. Katar Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fclkenin bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nledi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Fatih Birol, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n haftalar i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131lmamas\u0131 halinde k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011finin risk alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131n ortas\u0131nda WTI ham petrol 79,00 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik acil bir tehdit ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. Normal ko\u015fullarda g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi\u2014k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si\u2014H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 kapanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel enerji ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde sekteye u\u011fratabilir. Bu jeopolitik restle\u015fmenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda derinle\u015fmesiyle birlikte, t\u00fcrev piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bu y\u00fcksek riskli ortamda yol almak i\u00e7in, WTI ve Brent \u00fczerinde uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 ile y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak kritik deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koridorlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik jeopolitik tehditler, CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olabiliyor. Z\u0131mni volatilite (implied volatility) maliyetleri cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 seviyelere y\u00fckselmeden \u00f6nce call opsiyonu almak, ani bir arz daralmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in en iyi risk-getiri dengesini sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintilerinin uluslararas\u0131 g\u00f6stergeleri do\u011frudan etkilemesi nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Brent-WTI fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u0130ran K\u00f6rfezi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde tarihsel olarak geni\u015fleyen bu makastan yararlanmak i\u00e7in uzun Brent-k\u0131sa WTI spread pozisyonlar\u0131 alarak geni\u015fleyen fark\u0131 hedefleyebilir. Ancak olas\u0131 ani bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n jeopolitik risk primlerini h\u0131zla t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilece\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131; bu nedenle s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss emirleri uygulanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrol piyasas\u0131nda alarm zilleri: WTI 79 dolara t\u0131rman\u0131rken ABD-\u0130ran gerilimi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kilitleme riski do\u011furdu. Arz \u015foku endi\u015fesiyle volatilite art\u0131yor; call opsiyonlar\u0131 ve Brent-WTI spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t