Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019daki elektrik\/enerji altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 vurmas\u0131 halinde Yemen\u2019deki Husilerden K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz petrol g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131n\u0131 istedi. Husilere yak\u0131n bir kaynak, Bab\u00fc\u2019l-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131 (K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019in giri\u015f kap\u0131s\u0131) yak\u0131nlar\u0131na konu\u015fland\u0131r\u0131lan f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA\u2019larla birlikte gemicili\u011fe y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayn\u0131 kaynak, \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu (IRGC) temsilcilerinin h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda Yemen\u2019de bulundu\u011funu ve bo\u011faz\u0131n ne zaman kapat\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin karar\u0131 onlar\u0131n kontrol edece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 g\u00fcne ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 ise per\u015fembe sabah\u0131 erken saatlerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen yeni bir ABD sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131n\u0131n, mevcut turda ilk kez Tahran \u00e7evresindeki b\u00f6lgeleri ve di\u011fer baz\u0131 eyaletleri hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019na (\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ihracat terminali) do\u011fru seyreden bir tankerin \u00e7oklu uyar\u0131lar\u0131 dikkate almamas\u0131 \u00fczerine Hellfire f\u00fczesiyle ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Tasnim, Bender Abbas, Ke\u015fm ve Ahvaz\u2019da patlamalar oldu\u011funu; Bender Abbas-Kahorstan-Lar k\u00f6pr\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn hedef al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve Kahorstan\u2019da elektrik kesintileri ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Fars ise Kuveyt\u2019te ve Basra\u2019da y\u00fcksek \u015fiddette patlama sesleri duyuldu\u011funu bildirdi. Katar Savunma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bir f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nlendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n—\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 9 milyon varil petrol ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tarihsel olarak ta\u015f\u0131yan Bab\u00fc\u2019l-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik do\u011frudan tehditle birlikte, e\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir arz \u015foku riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 uzun volatilite stratejilerine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde odaklanmas\u0131 gerekecek. B\u00fcy\u00fck Ortado\u011fu gerilimlerinde Cboe Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) tarihsel olarak 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, prim al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) Brent ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Tankerlerin hedef al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz rotas\u0131n\u0131n kapanma ihtimali, filolar\u0131 Afrika\u2019n\u0131n \u00dcmit Burnu \u00fczerinden yeniden rota olu\u015fturmaya zorlayacak; bu da transit s\u00fcrelerine 14 g\u00fcne kadar ek s\u00fcre getirebilir. Bu aksaman\u0131n deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 maliyetlerini sert bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 itmesini bekliyoruz; ge\u00e7mi\u015f b\u00f6lgesel krizlerde tanker kiralama (charter) oranlar\u0131 birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %150\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. S\u0131k\u0131\u015fan ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, \u00f6zellikle Suezmax ve VLCC s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131 tankerler i\u00e7in Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) kontratlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyonlar al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin Kharg Adas\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u0130ran altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varil ham petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6neten bu d\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm noktas\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131rken, b\u00f6lgesel arz k\u0131sa vadede do\u011frudan risk alt\u0131na giriyor. Piyasada ani bir fiziksel a\u00e7\u0131k olu\u015fmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel ham petrol g\u00f6stergelerinde (benchmark) y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread (bull call spread) stratejilerine girilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Kuveyt ve Katar \u00e7evresinde t\u0131rmanabilecek bir gerilimin b\u00f6lgesel rafineri \u00fcretimini ciddi bi\u00e7imde aksat\u0131p dizel ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 t\u00fcrevlerinde sert y\u00fckseli\u015fleri tetikleyebilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak orta distilat crack spread\u2019lerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n