WTI HAM PETROL TEKN\u0130K G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM VE ARZ BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol, 80,00 dolar seviyesinde \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olduktan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,00 dolar\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na geriledi. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00f6lgede 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) seviyenin hemen \u00fczerinde yer al\u0131rken, temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 67,00 dolarl\u0131k dipten gelen toparlanma ivme kaybetti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u0130ran \u00e7evresindeki gerilim; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ana ihracat terminali yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda bir tankere y\u00f6nelik ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yeniden artan deniz bask\u0131s\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerine do\u011fru ate\u015f a\u00e7mas\u0131 gibi geli\u015fmeleri i\u00e7erdi. Washington, korunan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kargolar\u0131 i\u00e7in %20\u2019lik bir ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti se\u00e7ene\u011fini g\u00fcndeme getirirken \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fc ve petrokimya \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini kapsayan bir muafiyeti de iptal etti. Buna ra\u011fmen fiyatlar 80,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmakta zorland\u0131; WTI daha \u00f6nce 107,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra iki hafta i\u00e7inde yeniden 67,00 dolara kadar gerilemi\u015fti. Tanker trafi\u011finin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte haziran ortalamas\u0131, may\u0131sa k\u0131yasla 20,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Arz ko\u015fullar\u0131 gev\u015fek kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor: ABD \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 13,5 milyon varil seviyesinde seyrederken Brezilya, Guyana ve Kanada piyasaya ek varil sa\u011fl\u0131yor; kurumlar, talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyon varil civar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131yla 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru uzanan bir arz fazlas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. OPEC i\u00e7i uyum zay\u0131flad\u0131; BAE\u2019nin nisan ay\u0131nda ayr\u0131lmas\u0131yla birlikte, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kla Suudi Arabistan ve K\u00f6rfez m\u00fcttefiklerinde yo\u011funla\u015fan yedek kapasite ralli denemelerini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam ediyor. \u00d6te yandan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep enflasyonu besleyerek merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin\u201d duru\u015funu korumas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Risk oda\u011f\u0131 Yemen\u2019e kayd\u0131: Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Sana havaliman\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve Husilerin Abha y\u00f6n\u00fcne f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatmalar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ham petrol ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k onda birini ta\u015f\u0131yan Bab\u00fc\u2019l-Mendeb, rotalar\u0131 aksatmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131labilir. Teknik olarak diren\u00e7 80,00 dolar ard\u0131ndan 82,00 ve 84,00 dolar; destek 78,00 dolar ard\u0131ndan 77,50 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ve 76,00 dolar seviyelerinde. G\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n 80,50 dolar \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimi de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi benimsenmeli ve West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 80,00 dolar tavan\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fmakta zorland\u0131k\u00e7a y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir. Yo\u011fun jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klara ra\u011fmen piyasan\u0131n bu seviyeyi tekrar tekrar koruyamamas\u0131, fiziksel arz kesintileri ya\u015fanmad\u0131k\u00e7a yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k bir \u201ckorku primi\u201d \u00f6demeye istekli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 80,00 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama civar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, e\u011filimin yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nece\u011fi 80,50 dolar \u00fczerinin ise s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyesi olarak izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, ABD \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,5 milyon varille rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Brezilya ve Guyana\u2019dan artan \u00fcretimle birlikte k\u00fcresel arz, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,2 milyon varillik talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor ve piyasay\u0131 belirgin bir arz fazlas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri tarihsel olarak, OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fcretim bu seviyelere s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda jeopolitik gerilimlerin fiziksel ablukalar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde ta\u015f\u0131makta nadiren ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n hedeflerinde \u00f6nce 78,00 dolar destek seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli, ard\u0131ndan 77,50 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalama g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu seviyelerin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde, 28-29 Temmuz\u2019daki potansiyel \u015fahin Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 dahil makro bask\u0131lar\u0131n dolar bazl\u0131 emtialar \u00fczerinde y\u00fck olu\u015fturmas\u0131yla WTI\u2019\u0131n 76,00 dolar seviyesini test etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu teknik tabanlar, k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcrev short i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in ana k\u00e2r-al b\u00f6lgeleri olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa pozisyonda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken Suudi Arabistan petrol altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 riskine kar\u015f\u0131 aktif bi\u00e7imde hedge yap\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Eyl\u00fcl 2019\u2019daki Abqaiq-Khurais sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 hat\u0131rlanmal\u0131; bu sald\u0131r\u0131lar k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %5\u2019ine denk gelen g\u00fcnl\u00fck 5,7 milyon varili an\u0131nda devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f ve ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tek seansta %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Husilerin Suudi i\u015fleme tesislerini ba\u015far\u0131yla hedef almas\u0131 veya k\u00fcresel deniz yoluyla ham petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %10\u2019unu ta\u015f\u0131yan Bab\u00fc\u2019l-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmas\u0131 halinde, derhal pozisyon y\u00f6n\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirilerek y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket takip edilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" WTI, 80 dolar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez a\u015famay\u0131nca 79 alt\u0131na indi: arz fazlas\u0131 ve gev\u015fek OPEC uyumu bask\u0131 kuruyor. Strateji: 80 \u00fczeri sat\u0131\u015f, stop 80,50; hedef 78-77,50-76. Jeopolitik riskler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t