USD\/CNH, paritenin 6,7781\u2019e y\u00fckseldikten sonra y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evirmesiyle birlikte 6,7653\u2019e gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan d\u00fczeltme hareketini geni\u015fletti. Daha \u00f6nce \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc USD 6,7695\u2019e kadar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; analistler 6,7660 seviyesini ara destek, ana deste\u011fi ise 6,7600 olarak i\u015faretlemi\u015fti. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi belirtilirken, k\u0131sa vadeli odak; 6,7780 alt\u0131nda bask\u0131 s\u00fcrerken (6,7720\u2019deki min\u00f6r diren\u00e7le birlikte) paritenin 6,7600\u2019u test edip edemeyece\u011fi.<\/p>\n
Bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftal\u0131k ufukta, diren\u00e7lerin korunmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla 6,7600\u2019a do\u011fru ilave geri \u00e7ekilme beklentisi (bias) ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. 6,7820 \u00fczeri bir hareket bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131r; daha \u00f6nce \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7\u201d 6,7860 olarak belirtilmi\u015fti ve \u00f6nceki bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve, 6,7760\u2019daki min\u00f6r diren\u00e7 sonras\u0131nda 6,7800\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edece\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Negatif duru\u015f 15 Temmuz tarihli olup, spot 6,7720 olarak kaydedilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
USD\/CNH paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ila \u00fc\u00e7 haftada 6,7600\u2019e do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Dolar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc, 6,7780\u2019deki yak\u0131n diren\u00e7 taraf\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ana diren\u00e7 6,7820 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu seviyeler korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, paritede en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n net \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 taraf.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %8,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 99 milyar dolara yakla\u015fan d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi gibi son ekonomik verilerle de uyumlu. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticaret fazlalar\u0131, yuan\u0131 dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekleyen do\u011fal d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri yarat\u0131r. Bu sa\u011flam temellerin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak amac\u0131yla 6,7600 hedef kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flemler (futures) taraf\u0131nda ise 6,7720\u2019ye do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon kurulabilir; s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes emri 6,7820\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerine yerle\u015ftirilmeli. Bug\u00fcn bu seviyelerin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira 6,7820 \u00fczeri bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn istikrar kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n