USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc yukar\u0131 \u00e7evirdi; ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ortam\u0131nda ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD verilerinin ard\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131yla parite %0,40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Parite en son 0,8088 seviyesindeydi; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip olan 0,8045\u2019ten toparlan\u0131rken, 0,8042\u2019deki grafik deste\u011fini de korudu. S\u00f6z konusu seviye, 31 Mart zirvesinin deste\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc noktaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu tepki al\u0131m\u0131 daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f kurgusunu korurken, G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine 50 n\u00f6tr \u00e7izgisine dokunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesi dikkat \u00e7ekiyor; momentum \u015fu anda 60\u2019a do\u011fru e\u011fim kazanm\u0131\u015f durumda. 0,8100 \u00fczerinde bir hareket 0,8171 seviyesini g\u00fcndeme getirecek; ard\u0131ndan 0,8250 izlenecek. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 0,8100 alt\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilme 0,8000\u2019i yeniden oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131r; daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama (SMA) 0,7967 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA 0,7919 seviyelerinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF\u2019de 0,8100 seviyesini kritik bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olarak yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8150 olan k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, paritenin bu ilk psikolojik bariyerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, y\u00fckselen G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) i\u015faret etti\u011fi yeniden canlanan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor. Fed\u2019in politika faizini %4,75 civar\u0131nda korudu\u011fu ve SNB\u2019nin son aylarda %1,0 seviyesinde sabit kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortamda, %3,75\u2019lik getiri avantaj\u0131 dolar lehine i\u015flemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi (carry-trade) cazibesi, tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verilerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde USD\/CHF\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korumas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi kapsam\u0131nda, vadeli i\u015flem pozisyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyelerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek olan 0,8042\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirip 0,8000\u2019in alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 0,7967\u2019yi hedefleyen sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na ge\u00e7mesi uygun olabilir. Bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadleri (bull call spreads) gibi yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131 da prim maliyetlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken 0,8171 ve 0,8250 gibi daha y\u00fcksek diren\u00e7 seviyelerini hedeflemeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n