Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), piyasalar\u0131n haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan ABD T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerini b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00f6rmezden gelerek, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itme ve enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden canland\u0131rma riski ta\u015f\u0131yan Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan gerilimleri fiyatlamas\u0131yla per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. XAU\/USD, ABD seans\u0131nda g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 3.974 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.015 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %1,10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD Dolar\u0131 ve ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlan\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in mesajlar\u0131 enflasyonu %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme ve istikrar kazanan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131na odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 masada tutarak faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n
ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 haziranda ayl\u0131k %0,2 artarak beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; may\u0131s verisi %0,9\u2019dan %1,0\u2019e revize edildi. Kontrol grubu %0,5\u2019te kal\u0131rken, may\u0131staki %0,8 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 216 binden 208 bine gerileyerek 217 binlik tahminin alt\u0131na indi. Jeopolitik risk, \u0130ran hedeflerine y\u00f6nelik ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n be\u015finci gecesine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuveyt, Bahreyn ve \u00dcrd\u00fcn\u2019de kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fine ili\u015fkin haberlerle y\u00fckseldi. Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran, ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji \u015febekesini hedef almas\u0131 halinde Yemen\u2019deki Husilere Bab el-Mendeb Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatmalar\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 iletti. WTI haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %12 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 80,00 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Teknik olarak XAU\/USD, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.495 dolar\u0131n ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.547 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken; 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7, 4.000 dolar ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 3.800 dolar seviyelerinde destek \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. RSI 37 civar\u0131nda; MACD pozitif ancak ivme zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n, kritik 4.000 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlan\u0131rken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na veya k\u0131sa vadeli k\u0131sa (short) vadeli kontratlara odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. XAU\/USD\u2019nin 4.015 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve bug\u00fcn 3.974 dolara kadar sarkm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yak\u0131n vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131y\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, 3.800 dolardaki paralel kanal deste\u011fine do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn haftal\u0131k bazda %12 s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 80,00 dolara y\u00fckselmesi enflasyonu yeniden alevlendirme riski ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n artan enerji maliyetlerine nas\u0131l tepki verdi\u011fini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. Son T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verileri so\u011fuma g\u00f6sterse de, bu petrol fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015felerini besliyor. Tarihsel olarak, reel getirilerde y\u00fckseli\u015f faiz getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; bu nedenle alt\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin yo\u011fun sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta, 4.200 dolar \u00e7evresinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir diren\u00e7 k\u00fcmesi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu seviye ayn\u0131 zamanda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc paralel kanal\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131yla \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Fiyat 4.495 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bask\u0131n trend net bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu nedenle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, dipten al\u0131m yapmak yerine 4.150 veya 4.200 dolara do\u011fru olas\u0131 ge\u00e7ici tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerini yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda %0,2\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131n\u0131n 208 bine gerilemesi dahil son ABD makro verileri, ekonominin y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine ra\u011fmen yeterince diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde Fed\u2019e faiz indirimlerini erteleme veya y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde faiz art\u0131rma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde geni\u015f bir alan tan\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bear put spread gibi risk tan\u0131ml\u0131 stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n