\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetti; Greenback, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. USD\/CHF g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 0,8044 ile dip g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, 0,8080 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,35 art\u0131da s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda Dolar, Haziran T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE verilerinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; bu durum, yak\u0131n vadede Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin alg\u0131y\u0131 zay\u0131flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilimler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltti; enflasyon risklerini yeniden g\u00fcndemde tutarak, y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde Fed\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini destekledi.<\/p>\n\n
CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %58 olarak ima ediyor; bu oran Ekim\u2019de %65\u2019e, Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ise %76\u2019ya y\u00fckseliyor. ABD verileri de Dolar\u2019\u0131 destekledi: 11 Temmuz ile biten haftada ilk i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 217 bin beklentiye kar\u015f\u0131 208 bine geriledi. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar Haziran\u2019da ayl\u0131k %0,2 artarak beklentilere paralel ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken, May\u0131s verisi %0,9\u2019dan %1,0\u2019e yukar\u0131 revize edildi. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar kontrol grubu %0,5 geldi (May\u0131s: %0,8). DXY endeksi, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 18 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 100,35\u2019i g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan 100,72 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. SNB ise jeopolitik risklere ve d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye daha y\u00fcksek isteklili\u011fe i\u015faret ederken, Haziran ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n uygun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, toparlanan Greenback\u2019ten faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/CHF paritesinde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spread) kullanarak uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Parite \u015fu anda 0,8080 civar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrederken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verileri ve artan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerinin birle\u015fimi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc net bir alan yarat\u0131yor. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlarken ABD Dolar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131rken istikrarl\u0131 getiriler yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 nedeniyle y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi Fed faiz beklentilerindeki ani de\u011fi\u015fim. K\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda Brent petrol yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru y\u00fckseliyor; bu seviye tarihsel olarak enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden alevlendiriyor. Bu nedenle vadeli piyasalar, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla %58 olarak fiyatlad\u0131; bu oran Aral\u0131k\u2019ta %76\u2019ya kadar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019nda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6nermiyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde aktif bi\u00e7imde sinyal veriyor. Tarihsel olarak SNB, jeopolitik gerilimlerin Frank\u2019\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde paray\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in agresif d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahaleleri kullanmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmad\u0131. K\u0131sa CHF knock-out opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmak, olas\u0131 ani bir SNB m\u00fcdahalesinden k\u00e2r etmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olurken toplam riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri de bu y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimli USD g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor; haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 yak\u0131n zamanda 208 bine kadar geriledi. ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc verileri beklentileri istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019e faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma alan\u0131 sa\u011flar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgas\u0131na e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flemine y\u00f6nelmenin uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenip USD\/CHF\u2019yi 0,8080\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Petrol kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131s\u0131 Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisini (Eyl\u00fcl %58) y\u00fckseltti. Strateji: bull call spread; CHF uzun riskli, SNB m\u00fcdahalesi sinyali var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t