{"id":51052,"date":"2026-07-16T13:59:24","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:59:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/td-securities-haziran-perakende-satislarinda-yatay-seyir-daha-zayif-ufe-ve-abd-dolari-icin-asagi-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-16T13:59:24","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T13:59:24","slug":"td-securities-haziran-perakende-satislarinda-yatay-seyir-daha-zayif-ufe-ve-abd-dolari-icin-asagi-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/td-securities-haziran-perakende-satislarinda-yatay-seyir-daha-zayif-ufe-ve-abd-dolari-icin-asagi-yonlu-risklere-dikkat-cekiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TD Securities, Haziran Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda Yatay Seyir, Daha Zay\u0131f \u00dcFE ve ABD Dolar\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 Y\u00f6nl\u00fc Risklere Dikkat \u00c7ekiyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD Securities, ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n haziranda ayl\u0131k bazda %0,0 ile yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; bu tahmin %0,2\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda. Banka, kontrol grubunu %0,2 (beklenti: %0,5) \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, benzin fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle benzin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yiyecek-i\u00e7ecek hizmetlerinin %0,8 gerileyece\u011fini belirtiyor. Otomobil sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ise ayl\u0131k bazda %3,0 artmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu art\u0131\u015f, harcamalardaki genel zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u0131smen telafi ederken t\u00fcketici ivmesinde so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor ve ABD Dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon verilerinde, man\u015fet haziran \u00dcFE\u2019nin (PPI) %0,0\u2019l\u0131k konsens\u00fcse kar\u015f\u0131 %\u20110,3 oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor; bunun g\u0131da ve enerjideki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Kurum, T\u00dcFE sonras\u0131nda haziran \u00e7ekirdek PCE tahminini ayl\u0131k %0,14\u2019ten %0,19\u2019a y\u00fckseltti; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00dcFE ve T\u00dcFE\u2019nin birlikte okunmas\u0131n\u0131n ay geneli i\u00e7in \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\/sakin\u201d kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyor. TD Securities, Fed\u2019in temmuzda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve T\u00fcrev Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Perakende b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin tamamen durmas\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu zay\u0131flama trendinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) takip eden haftalarda yakla\u015f\u0131k %1 ila %1,5 geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Faiz Politikas\u0131 ve Portf\u00f6y Korunma Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

Man\u015fet t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,0 ile yatay seyretmesi ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesiyle, Fed\u2019in faizleri bir s\u00fcre sabit tutup sonras\u0131nda indirimlere y\u00f6nelmesi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Getirilerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri veya uzun vadeli Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f veriler, benzer ekonomik so\u011fumalarda yakla\u015fan bir faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun tahvil fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, daha geni\u015f bir t\u00fcketici yava\u015flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla perakende ve t\u00fcketici iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 (consumer discretionary) borsa yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda (ETF) opsiyon spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Perakende a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek endekslerde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak, \u015firket k\u00e2rlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir. \u00d6te yandan, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getiriler; kamu hizmetleri (utilities) ve gayrimenkul gibi faiz hassasiyeti y\u00fcksek sekt\u00f6rlerde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in taktiksel bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dikkat: ABD\u2019de t\u00fcketici yoruluyor! TD Securities, haziran perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 %0,0 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor (beklenti %0,2); benzin\/servis zay\u0131f, oto g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u00dcFE s\u00fcrpriz eksi; Fed temmuzda pas, dolar bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51052","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51052","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51052"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51052\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51052"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51052"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51052"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}