\u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) haziran tutanaklar\u0131, parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n uygun de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini ve enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini belirterek, k\u0131sa vadede ilave bir aksiyona ihtiya\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Banka, gerekirse d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale etme isteklili\u011finin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgularken, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131nda (CHF) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc de\u011ferlenme riskinin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat \u00e7ekti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ile olas\u0131 bir \u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline y\u00f6nelik y\u00fcksek belirsizli\u011fin fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin etkisi olabilece\u011fi ifade edilirken, k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi, orta vadeli beklentilerin ise yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eirket temaslar\u0131, belirsizlik y\u00fcksek seyretmesine ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131ndan gelen sinyaller zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte cironun sa\u011flam bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini bildirdi. Ekonomik i\u015fler birimi, i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yatay seyredece\u011fini ve 2027\u2019de gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k ve yaz\u0131l\u0131m geli\u015ftirme dahil baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerde yapay zek\u00e2, mevcut i\u015f modellerini \u015fimdiden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Piyasa tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131: Avrupa i\u015flemleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n hafif g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle USD\/CHF 0,8066\u2019ya yak\u0131n seviyelere y\u00fckselirken, CHF zay\u0131f bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergiledi.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/CHF 0,8066 seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrederken, \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun merkez bankas\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131 hamle riskini art\u0131rabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. SNB\u2019nin yak\u0131n zamanda frang\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu \u00f6zellikle vurgulamas\u0131, ani SNB aksiyonlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmay\u0131 gerektiriyor. Tarihsel olarak SNB, frang\u0131n ihracat rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fini tehdit etti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak amac\u0131yla\u2014yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde 700 milyar CHF\u2019nin \u00fczerinde bulunan\u2014y\u00fcksek d\u00f6viz rezervlerini aktif \u015fekilde kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara sert bir yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe konumlanmak i\u00e7in \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. SNB\u2019nin mevcut faiz seviyelerinden memnun g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi ve \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonunun yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemde yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,3 ile istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korumas\u0131, faiz indirimlerinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na frang\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesinin zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, olas\u0131 ani kur hareketinin en muhtemel kayna\u011f\u0131 do\u011frudan piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi olacakt\u0131r; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki s\u00fcregelen jeopolitik gerilimlerin, tarihsel olarak \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdi\u011fini de hesaba katmal\u0131y\u0131z. Ani CHF g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, 0,8000 seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya \u201ccollar\u201d stratejilerini kullanabilir. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, olas\u0131 bir SNB m\u00fcdahalesinden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken, jeopolitik panik nedeniyle franga y\u00f6nelik yeni bir talep dalgas\u0131 olu\u015fmas\u0131 halinde koruma sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda piyasay\u0131 izlerken, yakla\u015fan \u0130svi\u00e7re makro g\u00f6stergelerini yak\u0131ndan takip etmek gerekiyor. \u00d6zellikle son d\u00f6nemde daralma b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyreden imalat PMI verisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Daha zay\u0131f bir ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve SNB\u2019nin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n dura\u011fan kalaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin projeksiyonu, frang\u0131n daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesini engelleme y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki merkez bankas\u0131 aciliyetini art\u0131rabilir. K\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon spread\u2019leri kullan\u0131larak, SNB\u2019nin devreye girmek zorunda kalmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce beklenen bant i\u00e7i fiyatlamadan faydalan\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar tetikte: SNB haziran tutanaklar\u0131, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131 yatayken ek ad\u0131m gereksiz dedi; ancak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc CHF\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fcdahale i\u015ftah\u0131 artt\u0131. Jeopolitik risklerle USD\/CHF\u2019de opsiyonlu pozisyonlanma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50145,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51043","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t