Commerzbank, son Kanada i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) son karar\u0131n\u0131n, USD\/CAD paritesini son d\u00f6nemdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinden \u00e7\u0131karacak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yerel para politikas\u0131na s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir alan b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini belirtti. Banka, piyasalar\u0131n ilave faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ise faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yak\u0131n vadede art\u0131\u015flara dair herhangi bir y\u00f6nlendirme sunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Banka ayr\u0131ca, USD\/CAD\u2019de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere olas\u0131 bir hareketin, paritedeki son gerilemenin ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi. Commerzbank, reel ekonomik verilerin Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6stermemesi halinde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ancak o zaman g\u00fcndeme gelebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc de korudu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, k\u0131sa USD\/CAD stratejilerini Kanada ekonomisinin pariteyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekece\u011fi beklentisine de\u011fil, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne odaklayarak kurgulamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Son Kanada istihdam verileri ve merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faizde \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu, yerel fakt\u00f6rlerin tek ba\u015f\u0131na Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesinin zor oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritede olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin neredeyse tamamen ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm k\u00fcresel e\u011filimlerle de uyumlu; zira ABD Dolar Endeksi, enflasyondaki so\u011fumaya paralel olarak 101,20 seviyesindeki \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Tarihsel veriler, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) BoC\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz indirdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde USD\/CAD\u2019in istikrarl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u015eu anda vadeli piyasalar, gelecek \u00e7eyrekte bir ek ABD faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %75 d\u00fczeyinde fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da s\u00f6z konusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada BoC politika faizini sabit tutmaya devam ediyor ve Aral\u0131k \u00f6ncesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmede belirgin bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fclmedik\u00e7e ilave bir yerel faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Yerel faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, Kanada\u2019daki i\u00e7 dinamiklerin USD\/CAD\u2019i a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itece\u011fine dayanmak riskli bir strateji. Bunun yerine, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n CAD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (call) yaln\u0131zca zay\u0131flayan ABD dolar\u0131 temas\u0131na dolayl\u0131 (proxy) bir pozisyon olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi daha uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak ve ani piyasa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/CAD sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (put) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011finden, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131m\u0131nda opsiyon primleri g\u00f6rece ucuz kal\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD perakende sat\u0131\u015f verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zay\u0131f bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, ABD dolar\u0131nda bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/CAD d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131? Commerzbank\u2019a g\u00f6re BoC\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015fu yerel deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in ana kataliz\u00f6r ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131k. Strateji: ucuz put\u2019larla dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne oyna.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t