ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa seans\u0131nda ABD Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar ve Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verileri \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Dow Jones vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,02 gerileyerek 52.890 civar\u0131na inerken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,06 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 7.610 yak\u0131n\u0131nda ve Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,24 kay\u0131pla yakla\u015f\u0131k 29.620 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dikkatler ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Netflix, UnitedHealth ve General Electric bilan\u00e7olar\u0131na; bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra petroldeki ve faizlerdeki genel hareketlere \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki askeri hareketlilik ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 iterken risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131 ve ikinci bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler yeniden g\u00fcndeme geldi. Bu durum, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. IRNA, \u0130ran ordusu s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcnden aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada ABD\u2019nin \u00e7e\u015fitli b\u00f6lgeleri vurmaya devam etti\u011fini ve sava\u015f\u0131n yay\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu; ayr\u0131ca Tahran\u2019\u0131n kom\u015fu \u00fclkelerle bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma i\u00e7inde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ayr\u0131 bir geli\u015fmede ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutmak amac\u0131yla yeni bir taarruz dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu; ABD u\u00e7aklar\u0131n\u0131n bir petrol tankerinin bacas\u0131na f\u00fcze ate\u015fleyerek gemiyi devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Wall Street, daha yumu\u015fak enflasyon verilerinin Hazine tahvili getirilerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesiyle y\u00fckseldi; Nasdaq %0,62, S&P 500 %0,38 ve Dow %0,29 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan askeri eylemler ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131rken piyasalarda dalgalanman\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcreli bir aksama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde daha da yukar\u0131 itme riski bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ani, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon tehdidine kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara Brent veya WTI ham petrol al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 korunma (hedge) amac\u0131yla kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Nasdaq 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri 29.620 civar\u0131nda seyrederken ve Netflix gibi y\u00fcksek profilli \u015firketlerin bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeyken, k\u0131sa vadeli hisse senedi volatilitesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselmesi olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verilerinin ard\u0131ndan her iki y\u00f6ne sert hareketlerden faydalanmak i\u00e7in S&P 500 veya Nasdaq \u00fczerinde straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz. Tarihsel olarak opsiyon piyasas\u0131, ani jeopolitik \u015foklar s\u0131ras\u0131nda volatiliteyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlama e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fundan, uzun volatilite stratejileri \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130kinci enflasyon dalgas\u0131 riski, Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 ku\u015fkusuz daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirirken Hazine tahvili getirilerini y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131\u011fa a\u00e7\u0131k tutuyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, son d\u00f6nemde gerileyen ancak makroekonomik verilerin ekonominin diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi halinde h\u0131zla tersine d\u00f6nebilecek 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz. Daha geni\u015f hisse portf\u00f6ylerini ani geri \u00e7ekilmelere kar\u015f\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in, halen 52.890 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren Dow Jones \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalan (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma maliyeti sabitlenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n