USD\/CNH, son d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fckseli\u015f denemesinden geri \u00e7ekildi ve \u015fu anda konsolidasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc veriyor; k\u0131sa vadede i\u015flemlerin 6.7950 ile 6.8100 band\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Son seansta parite 6.7984\u2019e geriledikten sonra 6.8101\u2019e toparland\u0131 ve g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyirle 6.8061 seviyesinde tamamlad\u0131; g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareket +%0,03 oldu. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla birlikte odak, k\u0131r\u0131lma denemesinden bant ko\u015fullar\u0131na kayd\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde teknik \u00e7er\u00e7eve, 6.8080 \u00fczerinde olas\u0131 bir kapan\u0131\u015fa odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse 6.8195\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7\u0131k kalabilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim ko\u015fullu \u015fekilde korunuyor: USD\/CNH 6.7830 \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. \u00d6nceki bant parametreleri 6.7750\u20136.8080 olarak belirtilmi\u015fti; 08 Temmuz itibar\u0131yla referans spot seviye 6.8050 idi.<\/p>\n\n
7.3000\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan, USD\/CNH\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eimdilik paritenin 7.2700 ile 7.2950 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yatay bir bantta konsolide olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu yatay hareket, bant stratejileriyle i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, \u00c7in\u2019in son a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2\u00c7 GSYH verilerinin %4,8 ile piyasa beklentilerinin hafif alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla destekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemek amac\u0131yla daha zay\u0131f bir kura toleransl\u0131 oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu unsurlar, \u015fimdilik yuan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine y\u00f6nelik hareketleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise ge\u00e7en haftaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisi, haziranda 250 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, yak\u0131n vadeli faiz indirimi beklentilerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131lmaya devam ediyor. Bu dinamik, USD\/CNH paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Beklenen bu konsolidasyon dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iron condor veya strangle gibi stratejilerle k\u0131sa vadeli volatilitenin sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n avantajl\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu stratejiler, \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 7.2700\u20137.2950 band\u0131 etraf\u0131nda yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritenin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda istikrarl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan getiri sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefler.<\/p>\n\n
Parite, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc destek olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 7.2650 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece bant i\u015flemi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. 7.2950 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin yeniden devreye girdi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek, 2026 ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen 7.3200 seviyesinin hedeflenmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lma ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kapatmaya ve y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015fa ge\u00e7meye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n