{"id":50921,"date":"2026-07-09T11:29:36","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T11:29:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/orta-dogudaki-saldirilara-ragmen-dolar-geriledi-yatirimcilar-fedin-daha-sahin-tona-kaymasini-ve-volatiliteye-karsi-korunma-islemlerini-izliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T11:29:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T11:29:36","slug":"orta-dogudaki-saldirilara-ragmen-dolar-geriledi-yatirimcilar-fedin-daha-sahin-tona-kaymasini-ve-volatiliteye-karsi-korunma-islemlerini-izliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/orta-dogudaki-saldirilara-ragmen-dolar-geriledi-yatirimcilar-fedin-daha-sahin-tona-kaymasini-ve-volatiliteye-karsi-korunma-islemlerini-izliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lara ra\u011fmen dolar geriledi; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Fed\u2019in daha \u015fahin tona kaymas\u0131n\u0131 ve volatiliteye kar\u015f\u0131 korunma i\u015flemlerini izliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

ABD dolar\u0131, Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerde talep bulmakta zorland\u0131. ABD takviminde haftal\u0131k \u0130lk \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve Haziran ay\u0131 Mevcut Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yer al\u0131rken, piyasalar merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 da izledi. \u00c7ar\u015famba gecesi ABD ordusu \u0130ran k\u0131y\u0131 \u015feridi boyunca 90 hedefin vuruldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 ise Kuveyt ve Bahreyn\u2019deki ABD \u00fcslerini hedef ald\u0131. Reuters, Katar Ba\u015fbakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede diplomasiyi te\u015fvik etti\u011fini bildirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ham petrol s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 gerilerken, Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,2 ile %0,7 aras\u0131nda y\u00fckseldi. <\/p>\n

Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklarda fiyat istikrar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131, azami istihdama y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin ise bir miktar yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyredebildi\u011fi senaryolar \u00e7izerek, ilave politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n gerekebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti. FX taraf\u0131nda EUR\/USD 1,1450\u2019ye do\u011fru y\u00fckselirken, GBP\/USD 1,3400 \u00fczerini g\u00f6rerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Alt\u0131n, \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,8 art\u0131\u015fla 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; USD\/JPY ise \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc %0,3\u2019l\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan 162,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u00e7eyreklik raporu, 9 b\u00f6lgenin tamam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirmeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; b\u00f6lgelerin \u00e7o\u011fu \u201c\u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 toparlanma\u201d olarak nitelendirildi.<\/p>\n

\n

Volatilite ve Piyasa Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

Ortado\u011fu geriliminin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ile ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131 aras\u0131nda ciddi bir kopukluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, piyasan\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 \u201ckontrol alt\u0131nda\u201d fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor ve daha y\u00fcksek volatilite i\u00e7in zemin haz\u0131rl\u0131yor. VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle endeksin yak\u0131n zamanda 12,5 civar\u0131nda 52 haftan\u0131n dibine yak\u0131n seyretmesi nedeniyle volatilitenin g\u00f6rece ucuz oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, ihtiyatl\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Fed tutanaklar\u0131, ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa net bi\u00e7imde i\u015faret ediyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n dolar geriliyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 zor; piyasan\u0131n daha \u015fahin bir patikay\u0131 yeniden fiyatlamak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak piyasa Fed\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, nihayetinde Fed kazanma e\u011filimindedir; 2022 politika d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde, \u00f6nce faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcphelerin zamanla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar rallisine evrilmesinde bunu g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/p>\n

\n

Taktiksel FX ve Emtia \u0130\u015flemleri<\/h3>\n

Dolara kar\u015f\u0131 net momentum g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD ve GBP\/USD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019nin 1,1450\u2019ye y\u00f6nelmesi ve GBP\/USD\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n zirvelerini test etmesiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli call\u2019lar daha fazla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle kat\u0131lman\u0131n bir yolu olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) son anketi de \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon beklentilerinin \u0131srarla %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stererek Euro\u2019nun g\u00f6reli g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Emtia taraf\u0131 iki farkl\u0131 hik\u00e2ye anlat\u0131yor; bu da belirgin bir g\u00f6reli de\u011fer i\u015flemi sunuyor. G\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanan alt\u0131na call opsiyonlar\u0131yla uzun pozisyon kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen bu sabah WTI vadeli i\u015flemlerinin %1,5 d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle ham petroldeki geri \u00e7ekilme, arz kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n abart\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve put opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Japonya\u2019da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n dura\u011fan de\u011ferlendirmesi, yenin hareketinin neredeyse tamamen ABD dolar\u0131 hik\u00e2yesi oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. USD\/JPY\u2019nin 162,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131, dolar\u0131n tutunmas\u0131 halinde sert bir tepki (reversal) i\u00e7in taktiksel bir pozisyon f\u0131rsat\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. \u00d6zellikle bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisi 215.000\u2019lik beklentinin alt\u0131nda gelirse, olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya oynayan k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlendirilmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 kopu\u015f: Ortado\u011fu gerilimine ra\u011fmen dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lenemiyor, DXY 101 alt\u0131. Fed tutanaklar\u0131 \u015fahin; EUR\/GBP y\u00fckseliyor, alt\u0131n 4.100 \u00fcst\u00fc. Strateji: VIX hedge, EUR\/GBP call, alt\u0131n call, WTI put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49971"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50921"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}