USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131na girmesiyle, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,8070 civar\u0131nda el de\u011fi\u015ftirerek ikinci g\u00fcnde de sakin seyrini korudu. Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n 16\u201317 Haziran\u2019daki ilk FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin tutanaklar, komitenin b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koydu: bir\u00e7ok kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6sterge faizin y\u0131l\u0131 mevcut %3,6 seviyesinde ya da buna hafif\u00e7e yak\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde tamamlayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise y\u0131l sonuna kadar faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi gerekece\u011fini savundu.<\/p>\n
Faiz beklentileri, CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n swap yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimaline ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %30\u2019un \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesiyle de\u011fi\u015fti; bu oran ge\u00e7en hafta %20\u2019nin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, yenilenen ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimi g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekledi. \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Bak\u0131r Galibaf, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na misillemeyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fini ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na eri\u015fimi kontrol etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131, SNB\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 CHF de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak ve ithal enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in \u201cgerekirse\u201d d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 yinelemesine ra\u011fmen, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131nma kaynakl\u0131 talep sayesinde destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Federal Rezerv\u2019deki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatilitenin artaca\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar faiz patikas\u0131nda bu denli b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fken, gelecek her enflasyon veya istihdam verisi piyasalarda belirgin dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Bu durum, b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz paritelerinde straddle gibi opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden uzun volatilite stratejilerini, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki belirsizli\u011fe kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u0130ran\u2019la yeniden t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmenin, piyasalar\u0131n yeterince fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin bir enflasyonist risk oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn bu hafta %5 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu seviye 2025\u2019in sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu s\u0131\u00e7rama Fed\u2019i harekete ge\u00e7meye zorlayacak; \u015fahin \u00fcyeleri daha y\u00fcksek sesle konu\u015fur hale getirirken, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 mevcut %30 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerine itecektir.<\/p>\n
Hem ABD Dolar\u0131 hem de \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman i\u015flevi g\u00f6rse de, bu \u00e7eki\u015fmenin nihai kazanan\u0131n\u0131n dolar olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re Ulusal Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Frang\u0131 zay\u0131flatmak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahale tehdidini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymas\u0131, Frang\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcne bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor; bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizi d\u00f6nemindeki ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD Dolar\u0131, hem g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan hem de daha y\u00fcksek faiz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanarak iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir destek elde ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planla, USD\/CHF\u2019nin mevcut 0,8070 seviyesinden kayda de\u011fer bir yukar\u0131 hareket yapmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Bu y\u00fckseli\u015ften kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnlere, \u00f6zellikle A\u011fustos vadeli ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,8200 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, dolar\u0131n beklentimiz do\u011frultusunda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi halinde yukar\u0131 potansiyeli maliyet-etkin bi\u00e7imde yakalamay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n