{"id":50905,"date":"2026-07-09T07:29:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T07:29:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-jpy-mudahale-soylemleri-fed-tutanaklari-ve-orta-dogu-geriliminin-baskisiyla-40-yilin-zirvesinden-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T07:29:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T07:29:22","slug":"usd-jpy-mudahale-soylemleri-fed-tutanaklari-ve-orta-dogu-geriliminin-baskisiyla-40-yilin-zirvesinden-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-jpy-mudahale-soylemleri-fed-tutanaklari-ve-orta-dogu-geriliminin-baskisiyla-40-yilin-zirvesinden-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/JPY, m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylemleri, Fed tutanaklar\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin bask\u0131s\u0131yla 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesinden geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda gev\u015feyerek 162,00 seviyesinin orta band\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131na indi ve d\u00f6rt g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7en \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00f6rt on y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine yak\u0131n seyrini korudu. Japon yetkililerin Yeni destekleyebilece\u011fine dair s\u00f6ylemler, JPY\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n k\u0131smen \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesini te\u015fvik etti. Dolar da, 16\u201317 Haziran FOMC Tutanaklar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin bir kaymaya i\u015faret etmemesi sonras\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131; \u00f6te yandan kay\u0131tlarda yetkililerin politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve enflasyonu yeniden %2\u2019ye d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ihtiya\u00e7 olabilece\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar 2026\u2019da en az bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da USD kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Fed\u2019in temmuzda politika faizini %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutaca\u011f\u0131, BoJ\u2019un ise politika faizini %1,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; b\u00f6ylece 250\u2013275 baz puanl\u0131k fark JPY carry trade\u2019i canl\u0131 tutuyor. Jeopolitik risk de Greenback\u2019e destek verdi: ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019a yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenledi; \u0130ran, Bahreyn ve Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verdi ve Donald Trump ate\u015fkesin sona erdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

M\u00fcdahale Riski ve Piyasa Oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131<\/h3>\n

9 Temmuz 2026 tarihi itibar\u0131yla USD\/JPY paritesinin 162,00 seviyesinin orta band\u0131n\u0131n hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi, piyasay\u0131 tedirgin tutuyor. Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan temel endi\u015fe, Japon yetkililerin para birimlerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek amac\u0131yla do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131. Bu nedenle, bu seviyelerden yeni uzun pozisyon ekleme konusunda temkinliyiz; zira ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riski y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

M\u00fcdahale riskini yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in en yak\u0131n vadeli tehdidi bu olu\u015fturuyor. 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahalelere d\u00f6n\u00fcp bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hamlesi paritenin tek bir g\u00fcnde 5 yenin \u00fczerinde gerilemesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu da k\u00e2rlar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 silinebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. USD\/JPY opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda mevcut ima edilen volatilite son bir ayda %11\u2019in \u00fczerinde artt\u0131; bu da di\u011fer yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n da yak\u0131n vadede b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketi fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Carry Trade Deste\u011fi ve Hedge Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Bu riske ra\u011fmen, parite i\u00e7in temel destek ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki belirgin faiz fark\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,50\u2013%2,75 seviyesindeki makasla, yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolar alma carry i\u015flemi bizim i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131. Son FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 da bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n daha m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da fark\u0131 daha da a\u00e7arak dolar\u0131 destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu ortamda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda riski y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n kritik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. M\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 olas\u0131 ani bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 mevcut uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla, bir ay vadeli USD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, k\u00e2rl\u0131 carry trade maruziyetimizi korurken, olas\u0131 zararlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in net bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeniden t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek tabloyu daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getiriyor. K\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde sermaye g\u00fcvenli liman olarak dolara y\u00f6nelme e\u011filiminde; bu e\u011filim 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ilk safhalar\u0131nda da g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu dinamik USD\/JPY\u2019yi daha da yukar\u0131 itebilir; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n elini zorlayarak m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir ve sat\u0131m opsiyonu hedge\u2019lerimizi daha da kritik hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/JPY 162 alt\u0131na sark\u0131p 4 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ralliye ara verdi; m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylemi YEN\u2019i toparlad\u0131. Ancak faiz fark\u0131 ve jeopolitik risk dolar\u0131 destekliyor\u2014162 band\u0131nda volatilite artarken hedge \u015fart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50905"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50905\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50035"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}