{"id":50882,"date":"2026-07-09T01:59:39","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T01:59:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/sahin-fed-tutanaklari-dolari-desteklerken-yen-geriledi-mudahale-riskiyle-usd-jpy-162nin-uzerine-cikti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T01:59:39","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T01:59:39","slug":"sahin-fed-tutanaklari-dolari-desteklerken-yen-geriledi-mudahale-riskiyle-usd-jpy-162nin-uzerine-cikti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/sahin-fed-tutanaklari-dolari-desteklerken-yen-geriledi-mudahale-riskiyle-usd-jpy-162nin-uzerine-cikti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eahin Fed tutanaklar\u0131 dolar\u0131 desteklerken yen geriledi; m\u00fcdahale riskiyle USD\/JPY 162\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Japon yeni, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,26\u2019dan fazla de\u011fer kaybederek, yakla\u015f\u0131k 162,03 seviyesine dokunduktan sonra USD\/JPY\u2019yi 162,54\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Hareket, Fed\u2019in toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Tutanaklarda \u00e7o\u011fu kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131, yetkililer faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmay\u0131 desteklerken ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 istikrarl\u0131 olarak nitelendirirken dahi \u201cbir miktar ek politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen gerekli olaca\u011f\u0131\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131. Baz\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca, k\u0131smen yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131 talebiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi senaryolar\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekerken, politikan\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran konusunda daha \u015fahin bir tutum benimsemesinin dolar lehine destek sa\u011flamas\u0131 ve Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin yeniden 101,00 seviyesini geri almas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131yla genel ton kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. Faiz beklentileri, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %18\u2019e i\u015faret ederken, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %52 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvili faizi 1,5 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %4,569\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu art\u0131\u015f daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc USD\/JPY ile uyumlu seyretti. Parite 162,00 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, k\u0131sa vadeli e\u015fik olarak 162,84 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bunun \u00fczerinde 163,00, ard\u0131ndan 165,00 ve 170,00 seviyeleri bir sonraki hedefler olarak belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Fed Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Piyasa S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcleri<\/h3>\n

Fed\u2019in son tutanaklar\u0131nda sergiledi\u011fi \u015fahin duru\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n Japon yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tutanaklar, \u00e7o\u011fu yetkilinin kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in ilave politika s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na muhtemelen ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/JPY\u2019nin mevcut 162,54 seviyesinden daha yukar\u0131 t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 uygun g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, ABD\u2019den gelen son g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc makro verilerle de destekleniyor. Haziran istihdam raporu, ekonominin 255.000 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan son T\u00dcFE verisi ise man\u015fet enflasyonun %3,4 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu rakamlar, Fed\u2019e yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in net bir zemin sunuyor.<\/p>\n

Sonu\u00e7 olarak, CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re t\u00fcrev piyasalarda Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k %75\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatlan\u0131yor. Bu, yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 hafta \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim ve piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin artan kanaatini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck, 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 bu paritedeki ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. Fed\u2019in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne tepki olarak ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,65\u2019e t\u0131rman\u0131rken, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvillerinin getirisi %1,0\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck fark, yen yerine ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u0130\u015flem perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak veya JPY vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (sat\u0131\u015f) pozisyon almak en do\u011frudan strateji olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 1 Temmuz zirvesi olan 162,84\u2019\u00fcn net bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, 165,00 seviyesine do\u011fru yolu a\u00e7abilir. Bunun da \u00fczerinde, psikolojik 170,00 e\u015fi\u011fi orta vadeli hedef olarak g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flemin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) agresif hareket alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %2,0\u2019nin alt\u0131nda seyrederken, BoJ\u2019un politika normalle\u015fmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131. 2022 ve 2024\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 alg\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yetkililer \u00f6nce s\u00f6ylemle sertle\u015fiyor, ard\u0131ndan m\u00fcdahaleye gidebiliyor. 165,00 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir hareket, m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini belirgin bi\u00e7imde art\u0131rabilir; bu da muhtemelen ge\u00e7ici olsa da sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f yaratabilir.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik gerilimler de bu a\u015famada yen yerine dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik son \u015fahin tonu, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n \u201cnihai g\u00fcvenli liman\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu dinamik, belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yenin geleneksel g\u00fcvenli liman rol\u00fcn\u00fc \u015fimdilik g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yen, Fed tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fahin tonu ve y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil faizleriyle 162,54\u2019e zay\u0131flad\u0131. Dolar endeksi 101\u2019e d\u00f6nd\u00fc. 162,84 \u00fcst\u00fc 165-170 hedeflenirken, BoJ pasif, m\u00fcdahale riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49975,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50882","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50882","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50882"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50882\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50882"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50882"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50882"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}