Fed ve ECB Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Ortam\u0131nda EUR\/USD \u0130vme Kazanmakta Zorlan\u0131yor<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa, son Federal Rezerv toplant\u0131s\u0131na ait tutanaklar\u0131 sindirdikten sonra EUR\/USD paritesinin 1,0750 civar\u0131nda ivme kazanmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Parite \u015fimdilik yatay seyrini koruyor, ancak dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 altta yatan destek, y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Bu da, bir\u00e7ok yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015flerde sat\u0131\u015f stratejisinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 tercih edildi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Fed tutanaklar\u0131, haziran T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 2,9\u2019a hafif gerilemesine ra\u011fmen yetkililerin kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyondan endi\u015fe etmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc teyit etti. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin 195 binlik sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesiyle Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal vermesi i\u00e7in pek bir neden bulunmuyor. Vadeli piyasalarda eyl\u00fcle kadar son bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40 seviyesinde fiyatlan\u0131yor; bu da dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu tablo, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde yava\u015flayan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ortam\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tamamlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret eden Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) ile keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, EUR\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini beklememizin temel nedenlerinden biri. Bu temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejilerini daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, EUR\/USD\u2019de bir ayl\u0131k risk reversal\u2019lar\u0131n call\u2019lara k\u0131yasla put\u2019lara kal\u0131c\u0131 bir e\u011filim g\u00f6sterdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe aktif bi\u00e7imde pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya riskten korunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130ma edilen volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; bu da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc put al\u0131m\u0131yla ifade etmeyi maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha verimli h\u00e2le getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Grafiklerde parite, kilit 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ederek k\u0131sa vadeli teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc zay\u0131f tutuyor. 1,0700 psikolojik seviyesindeki ilk deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p k\u0131r\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ge\u00e7ilmesi, bir sonraki ana destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 1,0650 civar\u0131na do\u011fru hareketi tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc tepkiler muhtemelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facak; al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in ilk \u00f6nemli e\u015fik 1,0800 b\u00f6lgesi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi korunduk\u00e7a, bu seviyede veya \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla prim toplama stratejisi de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Parite 1,0880 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine net bi\u00e7imde \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc yeniden g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmeye ba\u015flamay\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n
EUR\/USD, piyasalar\u0131n haziran FOMC tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 sindirmesiyle \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD\u2013\u0130ran gerilimlerinin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6nceki kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi ettikten sonra yatay seyre ge\u00e7ti. Parite, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan 1,1391\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,1427 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Dolar taraf\u0131ndaki tepki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; DXY, 101,27\u2019den gerileyerek 100,97 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Bu da Fed y\u00f6nlendirmesinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlara yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Yetkililer enflasyonun %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 dengeli olarak de\u011ferlendirdi ve faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131n gelecek verilere ba\u011fl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan EUR\/USD, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc paralel kanal i\u00e7inde ve kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak k\u0131sa vadeli e\u011filimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc tutuyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergelerinde iyile\u015fme var: RSI, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n seviyelerden 41\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; MACD ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu, daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f i\u00e7inde yatay konsolidasyona i\u015faret ediyor. Diren\u00e7 1,1500 civar\u0131nda; ard\u0131ndan 1,1611\u2019deki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) ve 1,1649\u2019daki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA izleniyor. Destek 1,1350 civar\u0131nda; sonras\u0131nda kanal taban\u0131 1,1305 \u00e7evresinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n