Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019la sava\u015f\u0131 bitirecek anla\u015fman\u0131n \u201cbitti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131yla %1,30\u2019dan fazla geriledi. XAU\/USD, d\u00f6rt g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi olan 4.021 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 4.059 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; WTI %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015fla 74,50 dolara y\u00fckselirken, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,10 artarak 101,20\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,5 baz puan y\u00fckselerek %4,589\u2019a t\u0131rmand\u0131 ve swaplar y\u0131l sonuna kadar 27 baz puan Fed (Federal Rezerv) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; Prime Terminal\u2019e g\u00f6re temmuz i\u00e7in fiyatlamada %65 \u201cpas\u201d, %35 \u201cfaiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131\u201d olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Bank of America, 2026 alt\u0131n tahminini %14 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek 4.360 dolara indirirken, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc sonras\u0131nda 5.000 dolar seviyesini korudu. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde seviyeler 4.021, ard\u0131ndan 4.000; devam\u0131nda YTD (y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana) dip seviyesi 3.941 ve 28 Ekim 2025 dip seviyesi 3.886 olarak izlendi. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde e\u015fikler 4.250 ve 4.300 olarak belirlenirken, diren\u00e7 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da (basit hareketli ortalama) 4.372 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019da 4.491; ayr\u0131ca 4.500 seviyesi de g\u00fcndemde. Merkez bankas\u0131 talebine ili\u015fkin veriler, 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton al\u0131m yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n\n
Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, en yak\u0131n vadede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimleri ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 petrol fiyat\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131n tetikledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131, ba\u015fl\u0131ca kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r konumunda. \u015eimdilik sermaye, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak alt\u0131na de\u011fil dolara ak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 74 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131, enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendiriyor ve stratejimizi do\u011frudan etkiliyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, piyasan\u0131n daha fazla Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek, dolar ve ABD tahvillerini getirisi olmayan alt\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 2,5 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz azal\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret eden son veriler, petrol fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisinin %4,60\u2019a yakla\u015fmas\u0131yla, alt\u0131n tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyeti belirgin \u015fekilde art\u0131yor. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,6 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren en son haziran T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) raporu, Fed\u2019e \u015fahin duru\u015fundan d\u00f6nmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e vermiyor. Yakla\u015fan Fed tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131n da veriye ba\u011fl\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede sert duru\u015f mesaj\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte bir \u201cdeath cross\u201d (\u00f6l\u00fcm kesi\u015fimi) olu\u015fumu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimimizi teyit ediyor. 4.100 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 her y\u00fckseli\u015fi, vadeli i\u015flem s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleriyle k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7mak veya put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlarda ana hedef, psikolojik destek olan 4.000 dolar; ikincil hedef ise y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dip seviye 3.941 dolar.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131ndaki son hareketlilik de bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekliyor; a\u011fustos vadeli, 4.000 ve 3.950 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put opsiyonlar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k pozisyonda belirgin bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlemledik. CFTC\u2019nin son Commitment of Traders (COT) raporu da, \u201cmanaged money\u201d fonlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, kurumsal duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f perspektifimizle hizaland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bank of America tahmini uzun vadeli potansiyele i\u015faret etse de, k\u0131sa vadede oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z mevcut kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlar. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc n\u00f6trlemek i\u00e7in 4.250 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m gerekir. Fed\u2019in patikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda beklenmedik bir zay\u0131flama i\u015fareti olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisini izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca, son y\u0131llarda geli\u015fen piyasalar\u0131n rezervlerine y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde ekleme yapmas\u0131yla, merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir taban sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da kabul etmeliyiz. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dip talep destekleyici bir unsur olsa da, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli etkisini bask\u0131lamas\u0131 muhtemel de\u011fil. Bu nedenle bunu, anl\u0131k bir al-sat sinyalinden ziyade arka plan fakt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n