Alt\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin yeniden t\u0131rmanmas\u0131n\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. Bu tablo, metale olan talebi zay\u0131flat\u0131rken ABD\u2019de daha s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini de yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131. Donald Trump, Ankara\u2019daki NATO Zirvesi\u2019nde \u0130ran ile ate\u015fkesin \u201cbitti\u011fini\u201d s\u00f6yledi; ancak Reuters daha sonra, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere a\u015fina bir kayna\u011fa dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde Trump\u2019\u0131n bu ifadeyi tekrarlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktard\u0131. XAU\/USD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik gece sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberler ve Kharg Adas\u0131\u2019na at\u0131f dahil yeni ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en haftaki kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri vererek 4.040 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fmeler, 17 Haziran\u2019da y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe giren ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fmadan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihlal olarak kayda ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 74,50 dolar civar\u0131nda seyrederken, haftal\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015f %8\u2019i a\u015ft\u0131 ve petroldeki toparlanma enflasyon endi\u015felerini besledi. CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nceki %58\u2019den %68\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi ise 4,58% yak\u0131n\u0131nda, May\u0131s sonundan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede kald\u0131; FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Alt\u0131n, ocak ay\u0131ndaki yakla\u015f\u0131k 5.600 dolarl\u0131k zirvesinin neredeyse %28 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, teknik olarak 4.122 dolardaki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Diren\u00e7ler 4.128, 4.200, 4.255 ve 4.400; destek 4.000 seviyesinde izlenirken RSI (14) 36 civar\u0131nda ve MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeniden artan gerilimin enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesiyle alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor ve alt\u0131n\u0131 daha az cazip bir yat\u0131r\u0131m haline getiriyor. Alt\u0131n \u015fu anda son d\u00f6nemdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri al\u0131yor ve 4.040 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ana tetikleyici ham petroldeki s\u0131\u00e7rama olurken, West Texas Intermediate\u2019\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak bu y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine y\u00f6neldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Enerji maliyetlerindeki bu art\u0131\u015f, yeni yapt\u0131r\u0131m tehditleri ve kritik bir petrol ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 koridoru olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki deniz hareketlili\u011finin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu geli\u015fmeler enflasyon beklentilerini do\u011frudan besliyor; son resmi veriler de bunu teyit ediyor. Haziran 2026 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) %3,8 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bunun sonucunda piyasa daha agresif bir Fed fiyatlamas\u0131na y\u00f6neldi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, tahvil piyasas\u0131na da yans\u0131yor: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvil faizi 4,58% civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini koruyarak getirisi olmayan varl\u0131klar (alt\u0131n gibi) aleyhine sermaye kaymas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn i\u015flemcileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, k\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131nda \u201cay\u0131\u201d y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. Jeopolitik gerilimin s\u00fcrmesi halinde 4.000 dolardaki kritik deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 bu seviyenin alt\u0131na denk gelen put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131nda, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn devam\u0131 beklentisiyle bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca 4.150 dolar civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 tavan\u0131yla call credit spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, prim toplarken s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fczerine konumlanmak i\u00e7in etkili bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum belirgin; G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru geriliyor. Fiyat, 100 periyotluk hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalarak bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. 4.000 dolar seviyesi yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; bu seviyenin net \u015fekilde k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu k\u0131sa vadeli negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ra\u011fmen, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temel destekleri de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekir. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda net 200 ton ek al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu uzun vadeli kurumsal talep, fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturabilir; bu nedenle net \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f stratejileri olmadan a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u201cshort\u201d pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak riskli olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n