WTI, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi sonras\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin riskleri yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131yla, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 73,10 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %1,48 y\u00fckseldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran ile \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7ersiz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi; NATO zirvesinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan art\u0131k m\u00fczakere istemedi\u011fini ekledi.<\/p>\n\n
CENTCOM\u2019un, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda birka\u00e7 gemiye y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak \u0130ran\u2019a ait askeri altyap\u0131y\u0131 vurdu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gerilim t\u0131rmand\u0131. K\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bu g\u00fczerg\u00e2hta olas\u0131 kesinti endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. ING, fiyatlardaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin Basra K\u00f6rfezi gerilimine ve ABD\u2019nin belirli \u0130ran petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik ge\u00e7ici bir lisans\u0131 iptal etme hamlesine ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ederken; ABD ham petrol ve rafine \u00fcr\u00fcn stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ve Rus rafinerilerine y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lara da dikkat \u00e7ekti. BNY ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan sevkiyat\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede normale d\u00f6nece\u011fi beklentisi zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a finansal piyasalar\u0131n daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi\u011fini; ham petrol fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n daha geni\u015f bir piyasa bozulmas\u0131na yay\u0131l\u0131p yay\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemede etkili olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tepki verdi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk ve en acil endi\u015fe, k\u00fcresel arz i\u00e7in kritik bir darbo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) 45\u2019in \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rayarak bu \u00e7eyre\u011fin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tedirginli\u011finin belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k ortam\u0131nda uzun volatilite stratejilerini ihtiyatl\u0131 buluyoruz. A\u011fustos veya Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli straddle gibi opsiyonlar\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 etkili olabilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, gerilimin daha da t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde sert bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften ya da tansiyonun beklenmedik \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesi durumunda ya\u015fanabilecek geri \u00e7ekilmeden, yani b\u00fcy\u00fck bir fiyat hareketinin her iki y\u00f6n\u00fcnden de faydalanmaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00f6n beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in 80-85 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n alarak daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlara y\u00f6nelik pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Son EIA raporu, ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4,2 milyon varillik beklentinin \u00fczerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit ederek, olas\u0131 kesintiler daha ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeden arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Bu tablo, 2019\u2019da Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyatlarda ge\u00e7ici ancak sert bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca vadeli i\u015flem e\u011frisini yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; yak\u0131n vade kontrat, daha ileri vadeli kontratlara k\u0131yasla belirgin \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. WTI A\u011fustos-Eyl\u00fcl 2026 spread\u2019i backwardation\u2019da \u015fimdiden 1,50 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine geni\u015fledi; bu da spot\/erken teslimat arz\u0131na y\u00f6nelik acil talebi yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Bu yap\u0131, \u00f6n vade vadeli i\u015flemlerde uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131, daha ileri vadeli kontratlara k\u0131yasla daha k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale getirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n