USD\/JPY, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da t\u0131rmanan yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik talebi art\u0131rmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 itmesiyle y\u00fckseldi; bu da Japon Yeni \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. Parite, yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu ve 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131nd\u0131. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131nlar\u0131nda ticari gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD ve \u0130ran gece boyunca kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump da Ankara\u2019daki NATO Zirvesi\u2019nde \u0130ran\u2019la ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sona erdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fckselen petrol, enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden canland\u0131rd\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilir. \u00d6te yandan Japonya, ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k %90\u2019\u0131n\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor. CME FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %68 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor; odak, 18:00 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. Japonya\u2019da ise Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma e\u011filimini korurken, h\u00fck\u00fcmet Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131n\u0131n BoJ\u2019un yetki alan\u0131nda oldu\u011funu yineledi.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesiyle, g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ve bunun USD\/JPY\u2019yi 40 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvelerine do\u011fru itti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu tablo volatilitede s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7\u0131yor; USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite %14\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu ortam, yaln\u0131zca y\u00f6n tahminiyle pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n riskli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama\u20142024\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131\u2014Japon Yeni\u2019ni do\u011frudan zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Japonya, ham petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131n %85\u2019inden fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131; bu da ekonomiyi jeopolitik gerilime kar\u015f\u0131 ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor. Gerilim y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece Yen \u00fczerindeki bu temel bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Para politikas\u0131 cephesinde, yenilenen enflasyon korkular\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde artt\u0131; fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %68 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 kritik olacak ve bu \u015fahin kaymay\u0131 teyit edecek ifadeler aranacak. \u015eahin duru\u015fun netle\u015fmesi, Dolar\u2019daki y\u00fckseli\u015fe ilave ivme kazand\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Ueda\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen BoJ\u2019un hareket alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Piyasa 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirisini \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirve olan %1,10\u2019a do\u011fru iterken, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n zorlay\u0131c\u0131 mali g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc BoJ\u2019un agresif bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma kapasitesini k\u0131s\u0131tlayabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n hareket kabiliyetindeki bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, USD\/JPY\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, bu y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ana riski Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale. Yetkililer Yen\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131na ili\u015fkin giderek daha y\u00fcksek sesle uyar\u0131larda bulunuyor. 2022\u2019deki m\u00fcdahaleler s\u0131ras\u0131nda, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde harcama yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve 5 yenlik sert geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fler g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Mevcut 162,50 civar\u0131nda i\u015flemler \u201charitas\u0131z\u201d bir alana i\u015faret ediyor; ani bir hareket riski son derece y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n\n
Bu z\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda volatiliteyi \u201csat\u0131n alman\u0131n\u201d en ihtiyatl\u0131 strateji oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz. 1\u20132 ay vadeli USD\/JPY straddle veya strangle al\u0131mlar\u0131, ister rallinin s\u00fcrmesi ister m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olsun, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketinden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir ortamda y\u00f6n\u00fc do\u011fru tahmin etme zorunlulu\u011funu azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentisi olanlar i\u00e7in, spot FX yerine riski tan\u0131mlayan opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin bir bull call spread, USD\/JPY\u2019de ilave y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken Japon yetkililerin devreye girmesi halinde potansiyel kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolunu sunar. Bu, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine daha temkinli bi\u00e7imde kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n