New York Mercantile Exchange\u2019te (NYMEX) i\u015flem g\u00f6ren West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vadeli kontratlar\u0131, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde %3,2 y\u00fckselerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 74,30 dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve iki haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sona erdirmeyi hedefleyen \u0130ran ile mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k ge\u00e7erli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; bu durum, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131nda kesinti riskine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gece saatlerinde ABD Merkez Kuvvetler Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Tahran\u2019\u0131n Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ticari gemilere sald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n askeri altyap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n vuruldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu su yolu k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse be\u015fte birini ta\u015f\u0131yor ve daha \u00f6nce \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan kapat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019in ortak sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn kapanmas\u0131yla, Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ilk dokuz g\u00fcn\u00fcnde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f, enerji talebini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in ithal petrole ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 ekonomilerde para birimleri \u00fczerinde genellikle bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 74,30 dolar civar\u0131na y\u00fckselmesiyle birlikte, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki yeniden t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan ba\u015fl\u0131ca kataliz\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki son askeri sald\u0131r\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede do\u011frudan risk alt\u0131na soktu. Bu, i\u015flem stratejimizde acil bir kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gerektiren \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmedir.<\/p>\n
Bu durumun stratejik \u00f6nemi abart\u0131lamaz; zira d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte biri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7iyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019ne (EIA) g\u00f6re, bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde ortalama 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde seyrediyor. Burada kal\u0131c\u0131 bir aksama, mevcut fiyat hareketinin i\u015faret etti\u011finden \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir etki yaratacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu fiyat hareketinin potansiyel \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in 2022 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki piyasa tepkisine bakmak yeterli. Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da jeopolitik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma patlak verdi\u011finde Brent petrol\u00fc iki haftadan k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 90 dolardan 125 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki mevcut do\u011frudan kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geli\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda benzer \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, hatta daha h\u0131zl\u0131, patlay\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar\u0131n ve oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin devam\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. En do\u011frudan yakla\u015f\u0131m, WTI veya Brent vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n almak; bu, y\u00fckselen fiyatlara maruz kalmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken azami riski de s\u0131n\u0131rlar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 ila 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde vadesi dolan k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6zellikle cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ham petrol\u00fcn \u00f6tesinde, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc hisseleri ve ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde de al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Petrol arama ve \u00fcretiminde faaliyet g\u00f6steren \u015firketler, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcksek seyretmesi halinde k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmlerini belirgin \u015fekilde iyile\u015ftirecektir. Bu da \u015fu anda g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz ana trendden faydalanmak i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka kanal sunar.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, etkiler d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na da yay\u0131lacak ve burada f\u0131rsatlar do\u011furacakt\u0131r. Japon yeni ve euro gibi ba\u015fl\u0131ca petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerin para birimlerinin ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019nin y\u00fckseli\u015finden ve EUR\/USD\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden faydalanacak pozisyonlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n