Alt\u0131n, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa erken i\u015flemlerinde 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunurken, Haziran FOMC Toplant\u0131 Tutanaklar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gev\u015femesine ra\u011fmen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorland\u0131. Metal, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve iki haftan\u0131n zirvesi olan 4.200 dolar\u0131n hemen \u00fczerindeki seviyeden geri \u00e7ekilirken, daha geni\u015f makro arka plan risklerin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler tabloyu daha da karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirdi: H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00fc\u00e7 petrol tankerine y\u00f6nelik bildirilen sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130ran\u2019a yeni bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flat\u0131rken, Washington \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 piyasada petrol satmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131yan bir muafiyeti geri \u00e7ekme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m att\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler ham petrolde sert bir ralliye yol a\u00e7t\u0131 ve Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d duru\u015fuyla uyumlu bi\u00e7imde enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini yeniden alevlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Faiz patikas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. CME Group\u2019un FedWatch verilerine g\u00f6re piyasalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde fiyatl\u0131yor. Tahvil getirileri de y\u00fckseldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil faizi %4,567\u2019ye, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ise %4,189\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Teknik tarafta XAU\/USD, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli kanal i\u00e7inde ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (SMA) alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, MACD pozitife d\u00f6nse de RSI 44,33 ile zay\u0131f seyrini korudu. Diren\u00e7 4.164,35 dolar civar\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bir sonraki bariyer 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.491,30 dolarda bulunuyor; destek ise 3.713,85 dolar civar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut ko\u015fullarda, alt\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fcc\u00fc yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan ziyade sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki jeopolitik gerilim, alt\u0131ndan ziyade ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor ve metalde anlaml\u0131 fiyat y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Son veriler, Lloyd\u2019s of London\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki tankerler i\u00e7in sava\u015f riski sigortas\u0131 primini %35 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n dolar lehine bu gerilimin s\u00fcrece\u011fini bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Brent petrol\u00fcn bu y\u0131l ilk kez varil ba\u015f\u0131na 115 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki s\u0131\u00e7rama, Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan besliyor. Bu hareket, ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisinin enflasyonun 3,9%\u2019da inat\u00e7\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan geldi ve yeniden fiyat bask\u0131s\u0131 endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Bu nedenle, Federal Reserve\u2019\u00fcn yaz boyunca \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 bu artan kanaati yans\u0131t\u0131yor; federal fon vadeli i\u015flemleri Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak g\u00f6steriyor. Bu beklenti ABD tahvil getirilerini y\u00fcksek tutuyor; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu y\u00fcksek f\u0131rsat maliyeti, getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131n kurumsal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in cazibesini giderek azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik stratejimiz, 4.164 dolar seviyesindeki kanal direncine do\u011fru olu\u015fabilecek y\u00fckseli\u015fleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak kullanmak. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fekilde i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik cazip bir y\u00f6ntem olarak A\u011fustos vadeli \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, alt\u0131n diren\u00e7 alt\u0131nda bant i\u00e7inde kal\u0131rsa hem fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden hem de zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden (time decay) faydalan\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Oynakl\u0131k da y\u00fckseliyor; Cboe Alt\u0131n Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (GVZ) 22,5\u2019e t\u0131rmanarak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel bir hareketi de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in bear put spread\u2019leri de g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz. 4.000 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put al\u0131p e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 3.800 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satmak, mevcut fiyat kanal\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi hedeflemek i\u00e7in net bir yap\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut uzun (long) pozisyonu olanlar i\u00e7in, 3.715 dolar civar\u0131ndaki yap\u0131sal deste\u011fe do\u011fru bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 hedge yapmak yerinde olacakt\u0131r. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli koruyucu put al\u0131m\u0131, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131 sigorta sa\u011flayabilir. Alt\u0131n, kritik 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerine ikna edici bi\u00e7imde k\u0131r\u0131p bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kalmad\u0131k\u00e7a (halen uzak bir seviye olan 4.491 dolar), temkinli ila d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fumuzu koruyaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n