GDX, 2 Mart 2026 zirvesinden ba\u015flayan ve h\u00e2l\u00e2 tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sekans\u0131 i\u00e7inde kalmaya devam ediyor; gerileme h\u00e2len d\u00fczeltme fazlar\u0131yla takip edilen impulsif bir hareket olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk, s\u00f6z konusu zirveden \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen %100 ile %161,8 Fibonacci uzatmas\u0131yla \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor ve $33-$59 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hedef bir b\u00f6lge ortaya koyuyor. Bu alan, en az\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7 dalgal\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fin geli\u015febilece\u011fi bir destek b\u00f6lgesi olarak sunulurken, 18 Haziran zirvesinden ba\u015flayan yak\u0131n vadeli d\u00f6ng\u00fc ise h\u00e2len bir zigzag olarak \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
18 Haziran pivotundan itibaren, dalga ((i)) $84,28\u2019de tamamland\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan dalga ((ii)) $87,21\u2019de olu\u015ftu; sonras\u0131nda dalga ((iii)) $74,08\u2019e gerilerken dalga ((iv)) $76,40\u2019a toparland\u0131. Dalga ((v)) ise $73,70\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131 ve daha y\u00fcksek dereceden A dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tamamlad\u0131. Bu dipten itibaren B dalgas\u0131 \u201cdouble three\u201d formasyonuyla olu\u015ftu: dalga ((w)) $78,48\u2019e y\u00fckseldi, ard\u0131ndan dalga ((x)) $73,89\u2019a \u00e7ekildi ve dalga ((y)) $80,47\u2019ye ilerledi; sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131 ve $90 seviyesi kritik pivot olarak belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
Gold Miners ETF\u2019te (GDX) 2 Mart 2026 zirvesinden ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sekans\u0131n\u0131 tamamlanmam\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yap\u0131s\u0131, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir dip olu\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Fiyatlar $90 pivotunun alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, \u00f6nyarg\u0131m\u0131z net bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyle de destekleniyor; endeks k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce be\u015f ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 106,5 seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131mlanan Fed\u2019in haziran toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 da faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutulmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir uzla\u015f\u0131ya i\u015faret ederek 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini yeniden %4,5\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bu makro zemin, getiri \u00fcretmeyen alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece daha az cazip k\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n madencileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlu bir ortam olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n $59-$33 hedef b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi fiyatlamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu strateji, net tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir risk ve beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe do\u011frudan maruziyet sunar. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sekans\u0131n\u0131n bir sonraki baca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u015fekillenmesine yeterli zaman tan\u0131mak ad\u0131na, A\u011fustos sonu veya Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadelerini tercih ederiz.<\/p>\n\n
Daha temkinli risk i\u015ftah\u0131na sahip olanlar i\u00e7in ay\u0131 call spread\u2019leri (bear call spread) cazip bir alternatif. Yak\u0131n d\u00f6nem zirvelere yak\u0131n bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan call sat\u0131p, korunma amac\u0131yla daha uzak out-of-the-money bir call almak suretiyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar prim geliri \u00fcretebilir. Bu pozisyon, vade sonuna kadar GDX\u2019in sat\u0131lan call kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla; GDX d\u00fc\u015fse de yatay kalsa da hatta s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselse bile k\u00e2rl\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, son enflasyon verileriyle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor: Haziran 2026 T\u00dcFE raporu, %3,1 ile dezenflasyon e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stererek alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadede enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 koruma arac\u0131 olarak aciliyetini azalt\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca son on i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde GDX put\/call rasyosunun 1,25\u2019e belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, opsiyon piyasas\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlanmay\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n