USD\/CAD, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki g\u00fcnk\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,4200 civar\u0131na hafif y\u00fckseldi. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, Ba\u015fkan Kevin Warsh d\u00f6nemindeki ilk tutanaklar olacak Fed toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131 yer ald\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131, yeniden t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik gerilime ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131ndan destek bulsa da, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n zay\u0131f Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verisinin ard\u0131ndan ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri so\u011fudu. LSEG fiyatlamas\u0131, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar toplam Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 26 baz puan olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu rakam bir hafta \u00f6nce 38 baz puand\u0131. <\/p>\n
Petrol piyasas\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019na potansiyel destek sunmas\u0131 nedeniyle parite g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Fiyatlar, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni ABD hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u0130ran petrol ihracat\u0131na izin veren yapt\u0131r\u0131m muafiyetinin iptal edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu ad\u0131mlar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bir Katarl\u0131 LNG gemisi ve bir Suudi petrol tankeri dahil deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 izledi. Kanada\u2019da Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC), faiz oranlar\u0131 arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla %1\u2013%3 enflasyon hedefini g\u00f6zetirken; en b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat kalemi olan petrol\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi ve GSYH ile PMI\u2019lar gibi geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 makro veriler CAD i\u00e7in temel belirleyiciler olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Kanada Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,4200 yak\u0131n\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken net bir y\u00f6n bulmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi, ABD ekonomisinin beklenti olan 200 binin alt\u0131nda, yaln\u0131zca 155 bin istihdam ekledi\u011fini g\u00f6stererek Fed\u2019in gelecekteki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019la s\u00fcregelen gerilimler g\u00fcvenli liman talebi yaratarak \u015fimdilik dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6nemli bir unsur. Bu geli\u015fme, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fc son bir haftada %12 y\u00fckselterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n kritik ihracat kalemi olan petrol\u00fcn y\u00fcksek seyretmesi, Kanada Dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek anlam\u0131na geliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n USD\/CAD paritesini kritik 1,4150 destek seviyesinin yeniden alt\u0131na itebilecek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde CAD g\u00fcc\u00fc yarat\u0131p yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan temalardan birinin Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019de haziran T\u00dcFE enflasyonun %2,8\u2019e geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ederken, Kanada\u2019da son okuma %3,1 ile daha yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131 ve BoC\u2019nin faiz indirimi se\u00e7eneklerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bu e\u011filimin s\u00fcrmesi halinde, politika fark\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle USD\/CAD paritesinde oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Nitekim 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen oynakl\u0131k son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %6,5\u2019ten %8,0\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu durum opsiyon stratejilerini daha pahal\u0131 hale getirirken korunma (hedge) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha gerekli k\u0131labilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, piyasan\u0131n bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ortamda, her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki benzer gerilimlerin petrol\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli s\u0131\u00e7ratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda dalgalanma yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2019 yaz\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde belirsizlik, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir \u201cg\u00fcvene ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u201d ile USD\u2019yi desteklemi\u015f, ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 dengelenince etkinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu nedenle, mevcut \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 bir piyasa dinami\u011fi mi yoksa ge\u00e7ici bir \u015fok mu olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda temkinli olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n