Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 ve \u00e7evresinde \u00fc\u00e7 ticari petrol tankerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haberlerinin ABD\u2019nin misilleme sinyali vermesine yol a\u00e7mas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 4.100 dolara geriledi. ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM), Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc kuvvetlerinin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar ba\u015flatmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, ABD ordusu bu ad\u0131m\u0131, su yolundan ge\u00e7en \u00fc\u00e7 ticari gemiye y\u00f6nelik \u201c\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131\u201d olarak niteledi\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131larla ili\u015fkilendirdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde yay\u0131mlanacak Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Yenilenen gerilim, ge\u00e7en ay t\u00fcm cephelerde \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 sonland\u0131ran ve bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu zemin, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini art\u0131r\u0131rken, getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Bununla birlikte, ABD\u2019den gelen daha zay\u0131f istihdam verileri Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri azaltarak alt\u0131na bir miktar destek verdi. Haziran Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) raporu, May\u0131s ay\u0131 verisinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilerek 129 bin olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Haziran\u2019da 57 bin ki\u015filik art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; piyasa beklentisi 110 bindi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de rezervlerine yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda taze ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine tepki vermesiyle alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.100 dolara do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130lk endi\u015fe, petrol arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek bir aksaman\u0131n enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckleyerek Fed\u2019i ad\u0131m atmaya zorlayabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in alan\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden son derece zay\u0131f Haziran istihdam raporuyla dengeleniyor.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 sert fiyat hareketlerine haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131; zira piyasa, klasik bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile \u201cgetirisiz\u201d bir varl\u0131k aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. 2022\u2019de Ukrayna \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde benzer bir jeopolitik \u015fok ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, piyasa korkusunu \u00f6l\u00e7en VIX endeksi birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131ndaki ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, do\u011frudan askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar s\u0131ras\u0131nda tarihsel performans\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bunu potansiyel bir f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fcvenli liman talebi genellikle ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7taki faiz endi\u015felerinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7iyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, 2022\u2019deki ayn\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 izleyen iki haftada alt\u0131n, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Haziran\u2019da yaln\u0131zca 57 bin ki\u015filik istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden zay\u0131f ABD verisi, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel destek olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu rapor, piyasan\u0131n faiz beklentilerini keskin bi\u00e7imde yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na neden oldu; fed funds vadeli i\u015flemleri art\u0131k bir sonraki toplant\u0131da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu temel ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, nihayetinde ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamal\u0131 ve alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bir taban olu\u015fturmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle stratejimiz, bu geri \u00e7ekilmeyi g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in kullanmak y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak amac\u0131yla call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Uzun straddle stratejisi de cazip; zira istikrars\u0131z ko\u015fullar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve bu yap\u0131, fiyat\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ne gitti\u011finden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir hareketten faydalanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n