ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130ran ham petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na izin veren genel lisans\u0131 iptal ederek, feragat karar\u0131n\u0131 verili\u015finden 19 g\u00fcn sonra ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda \u00fc\u00e7 tankerin vurulmas\u0131ndan sadece saatler sonra geri \u00e7ekti. Lisans, haziranda bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren 14 maddelik bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda verilmi\u015f ve ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta 21 A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar sat\u0131\u015flara izin tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; Hazine \u015fimdi i\u015flemlerin 17 Temmuz\u2019a kadar geri al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 (unwind) emretti. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n haziranda g\u00f6lge filo \u00fczerinden yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyon varil sevkiyat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilirken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler en az 18 Temmuz\u2019a kadar rafa kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 yeniden fiyatland\u0131. Brent %5,22 y\u00fckselerek 75,86\u2019dan kapan\u0131rken, Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi ham petrol (WTI) %5,00 art\u0131\u015fla 72,05\u2019te uzla\u015fmaya vard\u0131; hareketin b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 18:30 GMT k\u0131sa s\u00fcre sonras\u0131nda geldi. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc zirveler 76,22 ve 72,33 olurken, seans dipleri 72,14 ve 68,63 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca Brent\u2019te 81,79 ve WTI\u2019da 77,42 seviyelerindeki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcstel Hareketli Ortalamalar\u0131 (EMA) izliyor; daha yak\u0131n destekler 74,00 ve 70,50 seviyelerinde bulunurken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (Stochastic RSI) her iki g\u00f6stergede de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mdan yukar\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol muafiyetinin iptali, k\u0131sa vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc tamamen s\u0131f\u0131rlad\u0131. Art\u0131k 14 maddelik ate\u015fkes \u00e7er\u00e7evesini k\u0131r\u0131lgan olarak de\u011ferlendirmek zorunday\u0131z; \u00e7\u00f6kme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n d\u00fcn %5 s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131, jeopolitik risk priminin geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor ve bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar\u0131 gerilimin t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) d\u00fcn belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel ve piyasan\u0131n deniz ablukas\u0131 riskini fiyatlamas\u0131yla y\u00fcksek seyretmesini bekliyoruz. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019inin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki benzer t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar tarihsel olarak kal\u0131c\u0131 volatiliteye yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Stratejimiz, i\u015flemlerin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 17 Temmuz son tarihi \u00f6ncesinde asimetrik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riske konumlanmak. A\u011fustos vadeli, WTI ve Brent \u00fczerinde \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131yoruz; \u00f6zellikle s\u0131ras\u0131yla 77 dolar ve 82 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, 2019\u2019da Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Brent\u2019in tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa tepkisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Ana de\u011fi\u015fken yapt\u0131r\u0131m uygulamas\u0131n\u0131n (enforcement) sertli\u011fi olmaya devam ediyor; Washington\u2019dan netlik beklemiyoruz. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6lge filosu ge\u00e7en ay g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,6 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde ihracat yapt\u0131 ve bu ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 durduracak bir abluka k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. ABD\u2019nin deniz varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirildi\u011fine i\u015faret eden herhangi bir ba\u015fl\u0131k, y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131na ek yapmak i\u00e7in sinyalimiz olacak.<\/p>\n\n
\u015eimdilik WTI\u2019da 70,50 dolar \u00e7evresindeki konsolidasyon band\u0131n\u0131 kritik e\u015fik olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z. Fiyat bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimimiz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. 18 Temmuz\u2019dan \u00f6nce bir diplomatik at\u0131l\u0131m, bu i\u015flemleri kapatmam\u0131za (unwind) neden olabilecek tek net kataliz\u00f6r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n