USD\/SGD, 1,2913 ile 1,2938 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,2924\u2019te neredeyse yatay kapand\u0131 ve %0,04 y\u00fckseldi. K\u0131sa vadeli momentum bir miktar zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ziyade bant i\u00e7i seyre i\u015faret ediyor. Yak\u0131n vadede g\u00fcn i\u00e7i hareketin 1,2900\u20131,2935 band\u0131 i\u00e7inde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k perspektifte parite, ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yatay bantta hareket ediyor. 02 Temmuz\u2019da spot 1,2960 seviyesindeyken \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bant 1,2890\u20131,2990 olarak revize edilmi\u015fti; ancak fiyatlamalar o tarihten bu yana band\u0131n alt b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne yak\u0131nsad\u0131. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum g\u00fc\u00e7lendik\u00e7e 1,2890\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor; ek destek 1,2875\u2019te g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Yukar\u0131 tarafta 1,2955 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor; bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde bir hareket, yatay ko\u015fullar\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini teyit edecektir.<\/p>\n
USD\/SGD paritesinin 1,2924 civar\u0131nda istikrar\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak k\u0131sa vadeli momentum a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u015faret etmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Haziran 2026\u2019ya ili\u015fkin ABD enflasyon verisi %2,9 ile gelerek Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi konusunda temkinli kalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Bu ortam, dolar\u0131n \u015fimdilik dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rme e\u011filimini destekliyor.<\/p>\n
1,2955 seviyesindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direnci dikkate alarak, bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, parite yatay seyrederken veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket ederken prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. USD\/SGD i\u00e7in son bir y\u0131lda ortalama %5,8\u2019de kalan tarihsel volatilite de bant i\u00e7i seyrin devam\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir hareket ihtimalindeki art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131, 1,2875 destek seviyesine yak\u0131n kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131yoruz. Singapur \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonu son raporda %3,1 ile kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; bu da Singapur Para Otoritesi\u2019nin kademeli kur de\u011ferlenmesi politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, paritede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lma ihtimaline ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftaya y\u00f6nelik genel strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir bant hareketine konumlanmay\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Call spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve put al\u0131m\u0131yla, parite 1,2955\u2019in alt\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece gelir elde etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu yap\u0131 ayr\u0131ca, momentumun pariteyi 1,2890 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 halinde net bir y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon da sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n