ECB Y\u00f6netim Konseyi \u00fcyesi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda \u0130talya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Bank of Italy) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan Fabio Panetta, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in dar bo\u011faz niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00f6netimine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik s\u00fcrerken Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonuna y\u00f6nelik yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklerin devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Panetta, arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n daha s\u0131k hale geldi\u011fini, bunun da g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lganla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; risk dengesini ise daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve daha zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye do\u011fru e\u011fik tuttu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki verdi. Il\u0131ml\u0131 \u015fahin tona ra\u011fmen euro yatay seyretti; haberin yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada EUR\/USD %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1427 seviyesindeydi. Speechtracker \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc Panetta\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 6,2\/10 olarak de\u011ferlendirirken, tarihsel ortalama 4,2\/10 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir politika gev\u015femesi i\u00e7in alan\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131 korunurken, piyasa \u00fczerindeki etkinin ola\u011fan\u0131n \u00fczerinde olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Arz kesintilerinin daha s\u0131k ya\u015fanmas\u0131yla birlikte yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir enflasyon \u015foku riskinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi kritik enerji ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131 etraf\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan durum, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) politikay\u0131 gev\u015fetme alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 b\u0131rakacak. Bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 konumlan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu riskler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131na maruz kalmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Eyl\u00fcl vadeli Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, K\u00f6rfez\u2019deki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 deniz s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ard\u0131ndan son bir haftada %4,5 y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylar i\u00e7in Brent petrol \u00fczerine al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, olas\u0131 arz kaynakl\u0131 \u015foklardan faydalanmak i\u00e7in net ve riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo Avrupa faizlerinin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisi %2,8 ile May\u0131s\u2019taki %2,6 seviyesinden yukar\u0131 geldi ve analistleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n, ECB\u2019nin faizleri sabit tutmak zorunda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; bu nedenle k\u0131sa vadeli faizlerde \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek\u201d senaryosundan fayda sa\u011flayan pozisyonlar cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemez. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in son HCOB Bile\u015fik PMI 49,8\u2019e gerileyerek yeniden daralma b\u00f6lgesine indi ve stagflasyonist bir ortama i\u015faret etti. Bu nedenle oynakl\u0131k al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ana korku g\u00f6stergesi VSTOXX endeksi halihaz\u0131rda 19,5\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Euro \u00f6zelinde, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eli\u015fkili bask\u0131lar d\u00fczensiz fiyat hareketlerine i\u015faret ediyor. EUR\/USD oynak seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar her iki y\u00f6nde de sert hareketler do\u011furabilir. Bu nedenle kurda y\u00f6nsel bir pozisyon almaktansa, y\u00f6n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat hareketlerinden kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerinin daha temkinli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n