GBP\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 1,3390 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek dokuzuncu ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasalar, Temmuz ve Eyl\u00fcl aylar\u0131nda Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentileri geri \u00e7ekerken, bu zay\u0131flama belirginle\u015fti. Yeniden fiyatlama, Wall Street\u2019in bekledi\u011finden Nisan, May\u0131s ve Haziran aylar\u0131nda daha az istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6steren daha zay\u0131f bir ABD istihdam g\u00fcncellemesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Ayr\u0131ca, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 gerileyen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifleterek, Fed\u2019in daha sert bir duru\u015f sergilemesi gerekti\u011fi alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta parite, sekiz g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste daha y\u00fcksek g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f kaydederek yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,3150\u2019den y\u00fckselip 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 (EMA) test etti; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise hemen alt\u0131nda yer al\u0131rken 1,3400 k\u0131sa vadeli diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Londra seans\u0131nda 1,3350 civar\u0131nda tutunan parite, \u00f6\u011fleden sonra y\u00fckseli\u015fini h\u0131zland\u0131rarak 1,3400\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131nda duraksad\u0131. \u015eahin bir Fed valisinin yorumlar\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc verilerine verilen tepkiler ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik verilerin hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Haziran ay\u0131 ABD istihdam raporu, ekonominin 200 binlik tahminlere kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k yaln\u0131zca 150 bin istihdam yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, piyasalar\u0131n Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ara verece\u011fine inanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mevcut vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131, Fed\u2019in bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %20\u2019nin alt\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde seyreden daha yap\u0131\u015fkan \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ediyor; bu da yak\u0131n vadede Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Sterlin a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan destekleyici.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD paritesi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir momentum sergileyerek 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve \u015fu anda 1,2850 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Dolar\u0131n, aksi y\u00f6nde olumlu haberlerin geldi\u011fi g\u00fcnlerde bile toparlanamamas\u0131, y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin \u015fimdilik t\u00fckendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bunu, Cable i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015flem yapanlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha fazla GBP\/USD g\u00fcc\u00fc i\u00e7in pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyelini yakalarken maksimum riskimizi net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n temkinli bir strateji oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u011fustos ortas\u0131na kadar 1,3000 psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket hedefliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, zay\u0131flayan ABD verilerinin sert bir dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ve Sterlin\u2019de belirgin bir ralliye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023 sonlar\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Gelecek hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak kritik bir ABD enflasyon raporu \u00f6ncesinde opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite cazip bir de\u011fer sunabilir. Bu da paritede y\u00fckseli\u015fin s\u00fcrmesinden faydalanabilecek i\u015flemleri yap\u0131land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n