USD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde 162,00 seviyesinin orta band\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan geri \u00e7ekilmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n devam etmesiyle 161,70\u2013161,65 b\u00f6lgesine geriledi. Kay\u0131plar, Japon yetkililerden bir m\u00fcdahale gelmemesi ve pariteye y\u00f6nelik alttan gelen destekle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Yetkililerin m\u00fcdahaleyi \u201c\u00f6nceden i\u015faret etmekten\u201d uzakla\u015f\u0131p spek\u00fclat\u00f6rleri hedef almaya y\u00f6nelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fine dair haberler \u015fu ana kadar piyasada kal\u0131c\u0131 bir etki yaratmazken, Japonya ile ABD gibi \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 carry trade\u2019i canl\u0131 tutuyor; Orta Do\u011fu geriliminin makro riskleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 da JPY \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik endi\u015feler, bir denizcilik ajans\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f yapan bir petrol tankerinin kimli\u011fi belirsiz bir m\u00fchimmatla vuruldu\u011funu bildirmesi sonras\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki ve gemilerden g\u00fczerg\u00e2h kullan\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fccret al\u0131nmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 huzursuzlu\u011fu art\u0131rd\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu arka plan, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha yumu\u015fak beklentilerin dolar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebini destekledi. Japonya\u2019da nominal \u00fccretler May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,2 artarak daha \u00f6nce revize edilen %3,6 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, reel \u00fccretler be\u015finci ayda %1,4 y\u00fckseldi; Hanehalk\u0131 Harcamalar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %0,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 gerilemesini kaydetti. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
USD\/JPY\u2019de 161,70 seviyesine do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmeyi, trend de\u011fi\u015fiminden ziyade potansiyel bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Zay\u0131f yen ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131 destekleyen temel dinamikler g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte. Japon yetkililer somut ad\u0131m atmad\u0131k\u00e7a d\u00fczeltme ama\u00e7l\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc kalmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n\n
Ana unsur, carry trade\u2019i son derece cazip k\u0131lan faiz fark\u0131. ABD\u2019de Fed fonlama faizi %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde seyrederken, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) faizi s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n. Bu ortamda yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p dolar almak anlaml\u0131 bir getiri avantaj\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu temel ger\u00e7ek, Japon yeni \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, m\u00fcdahale riskine kar\u015f\u0131 teyakkuzda kalmak gerekiyor; zira parite, 2022\u2019de m\u00fcdahaleyi tetikleyen 152,00 seviyesinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Yetkililer eylemden \u00e7ok s\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmeyle spek\u00fclat\u00f6rleri hedef al\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, ani ve sert bir hareket Hazine (Maliye) Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131 dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde h\u0131zl\u0131ca harekete ge\u00e7irebilir. Bu nedenle, y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ifade ederken olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler, \u00f6zellikle H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki geli\u015fmeler, dolar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Son aksakl\u0131klar Brent petrol\u00fc yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 90 dolar b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131rarak, enerji ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Japon ekonomisi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor ve dolar lehine tabloyu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu durum, k\u00fcresel belirsizlik d\u00f6nemlerinde yen ta\u015f\u0131man\u0131n cazibesini azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan Japonya verileri de yen lehine arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. Reel \u00fccretler \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci ay artm\u0131\u015f olsa da ivme yava\u015flad\u0131; hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131 ise May\u0131s\u2019ta %0,4 gerileyerek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Zay\u0131f i\u00e7 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, BoJ\u2019un daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesi i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD taraf\u0131nda ise \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,2 civar\u0131nda \u201cyap\u0131\u015fkan\u201d kalmas\u0131na i\u015faret eden son enflasyon verileri, Fed\u2019in faiz indiriminde aceleci olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu haftan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 FOMC tutanaklar\u0131 olacak; tutanaklar\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funu teyit etmesini bekliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda alttan gelen deste\u011fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n