WTI, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde hafif y\u00fckselerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 69,20 dolardan el de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. \u00d6nceki g\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki olaylar\u0131n gerilimi k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine art\u0131rmas\u0131 fiyatlara destek verdi. Bloomberg\u2019in bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberine g\u00f6re \u0130ran, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ge\u00e7 saatlerde ticari gemilere en az iki f\u00fcze ate\u015fledi; iki gemi hasar g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve can kayb\u0131 bildirilmedi. Ayr\u0131ca UK Maritime Trade Operations, g\u00fcneye seyreden bir tankerin iskele taraf\u0131n\u0131n kimli\u011fi belirsiz bir m\u00fchimmatla vuruldu\u011funu ve gemide yang\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131n WTI, piyasalar\u0131n artan k\u00fcresel arz ve toparlanan sevkiyat ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131yla d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en trafik yeniden canlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131; veriler, her biri iki milyon varil ta\u015f\u0131yabilen be\u015f s\u00fcpertanker dahil olmak \u00fczere Japonya ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 en az sekiz geminin \u0130ran\u2019a yak\u0131n bir g\u00fczergahtan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Fiyatlama taraf\u0131nda ise Suudi Aramco, OPEC+\u2019\u0131n gelecek ay i\u00e7in \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in Arab Light fiyat\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 11 dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek b\u00f6lgesel g\u00f6stergeye g\u00f6re 1,50 dolar iskontoya \u00e7ekti. Bu t\u00fcr bir ad\u0131m daha \u00f6nce yaln\u0131zca iki kez, 2015 ve 2020 petrol fiyat sava\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Mevcut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (yakla\u015f\u0131k 69,20 dolar) jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcye verilen ge\u00e7ici bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki sald\u0131r\u0131 ciddi olsa da, temel arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirdi\u011fine dair bir i\u015faret yok. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlara y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in bu g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
OPEC+\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimi art\u0131rma anla\u015fmas\u0131, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc arz\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir piyasaya \u00f6nemli miktarda ek varil getiriyor. ABD Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) g\u00fcncel verilerine g\u00f6re ABD ham petrol \u00fcretimi, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,2 milyon varil ile rekor seviyelere yak\u0131n seyrediyor. Bu \u201cbol arz\u201d zemini, k\u0131sa vadeli kesintilerin etkisini belirgin \u015fekilde zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Asya i\u00e7in agresif 11 dolarl\u0131k fiyat indirimi, fiyat\u0131 desteklemekten ziyade pazar pay\u0131 m\u00fccadelesine i\u015faret eden net bir sinyal. Bu stratejiyi 2015\u2019te ve 2020\u2019de g\u00f6rd\u00fck; her ikisinin de ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda belirgin ve uzun s\u00fcreli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin \u00f6ncesine denk gelmesi dikkat \u00e7ekici. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 arz kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik man\u015fetlere muhtemelen bask\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda, vadesi Temmuz sonu ile A\u011fustos 2026 aras\u0131nda olan \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, prim toplamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131rken; fiyatlar\u0131n bir ralliyi kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fi ve hatta gerileyebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne dayan\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz olay\u0131yla artan z\u0131mni volatilite, bu opsiyon primlerini \u015fu anda satmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle cazip hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en trafi\u011fin \u015fimdiden normale d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da piyasan\u0131n olay\u0131 \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\/izole\u201d bir geli\u015fme olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Temel hik\u00e2ye, hem OPEC+ ad\u0131mlar\u0131 hem de Suudi fiyat indirimlerinin i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u00fczere, artan k\u00fcresel arz olmaya devam ediyor. Mevcut man\u015fet etkisi zay\u0131flad\u0131k\u00e7a, bu temel fakt\u00f6rlerin yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n