ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelen ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) verisinin ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m beklentilerinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. Endeks, g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 101,14 zirvesinden gerileyerek 100,92 civar\u0131na inerken, dikkatler Fed\u2019in politika patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin gelecek sinyallere \u00e7evrildi. ABD-\u0130ran gerilimine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak petrolde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6nceki ralli, ge\u00e7en ayki ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7i\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n iyile\u015fmesiyle tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken Fed\u2019in %2 hedefi h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakalanamazken politikan\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev fiyatlamalar\u0131 bu de\u011fi\u015fimi yans\u0131tt\u0131: CME FedWatch Tool, bu ayki toplant\u0131da faizlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %77 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimali istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesindeki %63 seviyesinden %56\u2019ya geriledi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki diplomatik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler sonu\u00e7suz kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer taahh\u00fctleri \u00fczerinden anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar devam etti. Makro veri taraf\u0131nda, ISM Hizmet PMI haziranda 54 ile may\u0131staki 54,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; b\u00f6ylece geni\u015fleme 23. aya ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ADP \u00d6zel Sekt\u00f6r \u0130stihdam De\u011fi\u015fimi\u2019ni, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Haftal\u0131k \u0130\u015fsizlik Maa\u015f\u0131 Ba\u015fvurular\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc FOMC toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 izledi.<\/p>\n
Piyasa ge\u00e7en haftaki zay\u0131f istihdam raporunu sindirirken ABD dolar\u0131ndaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin duraklad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Yak\u0131n vadede Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, dolarda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha kalabal\u0131k ve daha riskli bir i\u015fleme d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda dolardaki ilave de\u011fer kazan\u0131m\u0131na maruziyeti azaltman\u0131n zaman\u0131 geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu de\u011fi\u015fimin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, konsens\u00fcs 210 bin iken yaln\u0131zca 155 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret eden son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisi. Ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %0,2\u2019ye yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte bu tablo, Fed\u2019e s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde duraklamak i\u00e7in net bir gerek\u00e7e sunuyor. Mevcut seviyelerde dolar lehine agresif y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7elendirmeyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca WTI ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n yeniden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolara gerilemesiyle, \u00f6nemli bir enflasyon kayna\u011f\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE verisi enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,8\u2019de seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de, enerji ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131ndaki so\u011fuma Fed\u2019in acil aksiyon alma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha n\u00f6tr bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, dolar\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi bir d\u00f6neme girmesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite satman\u0131n etkili bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. EUR\/USD gibi paritelerde strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla, yaz sonuna do\u011fru ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen volatilitenin d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekledi\u011fimiz bir senaryodan faydalanmay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, 2019 ortas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n belirsiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 benzer d\u00f6nemler, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda uzun s\u00fcreli yatay seyirlere yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcnk\u00fc FOMC tutanaklar\u0131nda veriye ba\u011fl\u0131 bir \u201cduraklama\u201dy\u0131 teyit eden ifadeler olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Dolar Endeksi \u015fu anda 101,15 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7le kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; 100,50 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m daha derin bir d\u00fczeltmeye i\u015faret edebilir. O zamana kadar bunu bant i\u015flemi ortam\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirecek ve opsiyon stratejilerimizi buna g\u00f6re konumland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n\n\n\n