Rabobank, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) 8 Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesini bekliyor. Bu beklenti Bloomberg anketi konsens\u00fcs\u00fcyle uyumlu olsa da tahminler ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumda. Banka, Yeni Zelanda \u201cg\u00f6lge kurulundan\u201d gelen karma sinyallere, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesine ve k\u0131r\u0131lgan i\u00e7 talep toparlanmas\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca NZD\u2019nin zay\u0131f seyretti\u011fini; G10\u2019da bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck performans tablosunda sondan ikinci s\u0131rada, JPY\u2019nin hemen \u00f6n\u00fcnde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildiriyor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l kapanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir risk unsuru olmu\u015ftu ve Ba\u015fkan Breman, May\u0131s toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in faizlerin bu y\u0131l y\u00fckselmesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda 17 Haziran\u2019da bir mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131n imzalanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan petrol, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan hemen \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyelere geri \u00e7ekildi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, mevcut %2,25\u2019ten \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,18\u2019e kadar neredeyse d\u00f6rt adet ilave 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor; bu da genel hatlar\u0131yla g\u00f6lge kurulun %3\u2013%3,25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131yla uyumlu. Bu nedenle Rabobank, NZD\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve RBNZ tonundaki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlere duyarl\u0131l\u0131kla NZD\/USD\u2019nin dalgal\u0131 seyredece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmas\u0131 beklenirken, bu ad\u0131m\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda kur fiyatlamas\u0131na tamamen yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Gecelik endeks swaplar\u0131 (OIS) \u015fu anda 2027 ortas\u0131na kadar nihai faizin %3,20\u2019ye ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; bu da piyasan\u0131n RBNZ\u2019nin \u015fahin patikas\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde angaje oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum \u015fahin bir s\u00fcrprize \u00e7ok az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor ve riskin Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu ima ediyor.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n agresif patikada teredd\u00fct etmesine yol a\u00e7abilecek ve paray\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u0131labilecek i\u015faretler g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en haftaki \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisi %0,8 ile beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; ayr\u0131ca son ANZ i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 g\u00fcveni anketleri 50 puanl\u0131k n\u00f6tr e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131na geriledi. Bu unsurlar, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle birlikte, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 agresif bir duru\u015f ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kadar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n zaten beklendi\u011fi bir ortamda, a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, RBNZ\u2019nin ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirmesinin piyasan\u0131n y\u00fcksek beklentilerini kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 halinde olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe maruz kalma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Bankan\u0131n \u015fahin tondan geri ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair herhangi bir sinyal, kolayl\u0131kla sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Paritenin bant i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in volatilite sat\u0131m\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. NZD\/USD\u2019nin belirli bir fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde getiri sa\u011flayan \u201ciron condor\u201d stratejisi, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 potansiyel ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn g\u00f6rece tamponlanabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, RBNZ\u2019nin beklendi\u011fi gibi faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ancak daha agresif bir gelecek patikas\u0131na angaje olmaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda elveri\u015fli.<\/p>\n
2014-2015 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rl\u0131yoruz: Agresif bir RBNZ faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede tersine d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015f ve Kiwi dolar\u0131nda sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarih, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ekonomik ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti\u011finde kurun tondaki herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fime kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok hassas hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, bug\u00fcn de temkinli duru\u015fumuzu destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n