{"id":50720,"date":"2026-07-06T20:59:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T20:59:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-cad-fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-ve-ticaret-belirsizliginin-kanada-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-yukselisini-surduruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-06T20:59:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T20:59:25","slug":"usd-cad-fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-ve-ticaret-belirsizliginin-kanada-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-yukselisini-surduruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-cad-fedin-sikilasma-beklentileri-ve-ticaret-belirsizliginin-kanada-dolari-uzerinde-baski-yaratmasiyla-yukselisini-surduruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD, Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri ve ticaret belirsizli\u011finin Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131yla y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD ikinci g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek Pazartesi 1,4230 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve %0,20 artt\u0131. Daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kanada Dolar\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan yap\u0131lan sevkiyat ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 hafta sonundaki aksaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flarken, OPEC+ Suudi Arabistan ve Rusya \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde gelecek ay i\u00e7in g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varillik \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda anla\u015ft\u0131. Bu ad\u0131m, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte olas\u0131 bir arz fazlas\u0131na ili\u015fkin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na pozisyon almas\u0131yla de\u011fer kazand\u0131; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %76,9 olarak g\u00f6sterirken, dikkatler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. ABD aktivite verileri istikrarl\u0131yd\u0131: ISM Hizmet PMI, Haziran\u2019da 54,5\u2019ten 54\u2019e gerileyerek beklentilerle uyumlu geldi; Yeni Sipari\u015fler ve \u00d6denen Fiyatlar zay\u0131flarken \u0130stihdam Endeksi iyile\u015fti. Scotiabank, Kanada ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n daralmas\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, USMCA\u2019n\u0131n yenilenmemesine y\u00f6nelik teyide ba\u011fl\u0131 ticaret belirsizli\u011fini ve BoC \u0130\u015f D\u00fcnyas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Anketi\u2019nin temkinli bir zemini yans\u0131taca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini vurgulad\u0131; ayr\u0131ca Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cde\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda\u201d olma durumunun azalmakta oldu\u011funu ekledi.<\/p>\n

Politika Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Temel Dinamikler<\/h3>\n

ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ve paritenin 1,4350\u2019ye do\u011fru itildi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayr\u0131\u015fma, ge\u00e7en Cuma g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam raporuyla daha da belirginle\u015fti: Haziran\u2019da 250 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde 5 bin ki\u015filik istihdam kayb\u0131yla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturdu. Bu temel fark, USD\/CAD i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn yukar\u0131 olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Burada ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn Fed ile Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2019de \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun May\u0131s\u2019ta %3,1 gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan piyasa, CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %85 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Kanada enflasyonu %2,5\u2019e gerileyerek BoC\u2019ye bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

WTI ham petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, bunun \u201cloonie\u201dye (Kanada Dolar\u0131) deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki bask\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n pozitif etkisini g\u00f6lgeliyor. Ge\u00e7en haftaki s\u00fcrpriz ABD ham petrol stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da, arz endi\u015felerinin \u015fimdilik kayda de\u011fer bir petrol rallisini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Ticaret Belirsizli\u011fi ve Stratejik Konumlanma<\/h3>\n

S\u00fcren ticaret belirsizli\u011fini, Kanada Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bask\u0131 unsuru olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz ve daha \u00f6nce not edilen zay\u0131f e\u011filimin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7en hafta bir ABD ticaret temsilcisinin USMCA yeniden m\u00fczakerelerinde kereste ve s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine y\u00f6nelik daha sert bir tutuma ili\u015fkin yorumlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 temkinli tutuyor. Bu ortam, CAD baz\u0131 uzun vadeli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlere g\u00f6re \u201cde\u011ferinin alt\u0131nda\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnse bile, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/CAD\u2019de daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanan stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30\u201360 g\u00fcn vadeli USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, 1,4500 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareket i\u00e7in tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle pozisyon almay\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, beklenen politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndan ve Kanada para biriminin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu kal\u0131c\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlardan yararlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD iki g\u00fcn \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek 1,4230\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, 85$ petrol\u00fcn CAD deste\u011fini bast\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentisi, BoC\u2019nin bekle-g\u00f6r\u00fc, ticaret belirsizli\u011fiyle 1,4350\u20131,4500 hedefini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50720","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50720","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50720"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50720\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49977"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50720"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50720"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50720"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}