NZD\/USD, iki g\u00fcnl\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan gerileyerek Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 0,5690 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131, ANZ D\u00fcnya Emtia Fiyat Endeksi\u2019nin Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin azalmas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle Haziran\u2019da %1,0 gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. NZIER\u2019in g\u00f6lge kurulu, Temmuz ay\u0131 politika karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde neredeyse e\u015fit \u015fekilde b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131rken, \u00fcyeler orta vadede Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (OCR) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde %3,00\u2013%3,25 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckselmesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde yak\u0131nsad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ANZ, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen devam eden enflasyon riskleri ve zay\u0131f yurti\u00e7i para birimi ile birlikte Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00c7ar\u015famba OCR\u2019yi 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak %2,50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltmesini bekliyor. Bu arada parite, petrol ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden normalle\u015fmesiyle enflasyon endi\u015feleri hafiflese de, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde birden fazla Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi nedeniyle de geri \u00e7ekildi. CME FedWatch, piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini %77,3 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, g\u00f6zler \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Fed\u2019in Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD paritesinin 0,5690 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, D\u00fcnya Emtia Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ndeki son %1,0\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu e\u011filim, \u015fahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen Kiwi i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadede zorluk yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bizim i\u00e7in ana g\u00fcndem, Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gelecek \u00c7ar\u015famba, 15 Temmuz 2026\u2019daki toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Piyasa, Resmi Nakit Oran\u0131\u2019nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olsa da RBNZ\u2019nin tonuna ili\u015fkin \u00f6nemli belirsizlik s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle iki y\u00f6nde de sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanabilecek stratejileri de\u011ferlendirerek oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileriyle iyi destekleniyor. Son ABD istihdam raporu i\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye olan %3,7\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, CME FedWatch arac\u0131 piyasalar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar ilave art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %77,3 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funda bir de\u011fi\u015fim olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu \u00c7ar\u015famba, 8 Temmuz\u2019daki toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n
D\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler de Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan \u00c7in, Caixin \u0130malat PMI verisini 50,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; bu, yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir ekonomik geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen bu zay\u0131f veri, Yeni Zelanda ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik talebin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyredebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Kiwi i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir belirleyici olan s\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnleri fiyatlar\u0131 son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131flad\u0131. Son Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ihalesi, fiyat endeksinde %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stererek zay\u0131f emtia fiyatlar\u0131 anlat\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. S\u00fct \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinde belirgin bir toparlanma ve \u00c7in\u2019den daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler g\u00f6rmeden, NZD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ralli s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi zor olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili sinyaller \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, RBNZ karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde NZD\/USD\u2019nin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 15 Temmuz duyurusu etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizlikten yararlanmak i\u00e7in straddle gibi opsiyon stratejilerini de\u011ferlendirerek olas\u0131 bir volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yoruz. Orta vadede RBNZ g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u015fahin olsa da, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n mevcut g\u00fcc\u00fc Kiwi\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n