{"id":50638,"date":"2026-07-04T03:00:21","date_gmt":"2026-07-04T03:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinin-daha-guclu-pmii-ve-yuanin-deger-kazanmasi-faizlerin-hafif-yukselmesiyle-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-yonelik-beklentileri-azaltiyor\/"},"modified":"2026-07-04T03:00:21","modified_gmt":"2026-07-04T03:00:21","slug":"cinin-daha-guclu-pmii-ve-yuanin-deger-kazanmasi-faizlerin-hafif-yukselmesiyle-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-yonelik-beklentileri-azaltiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinin-daha-guclu-pmii-ve-yuanin-deger-kazanmasi-faizlerin-hafif-yukselmesiyle-pbocnin-gevseme-adimlarina-yonelik-beklentileri-azaltiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc PMI\u2019\u0131 ve yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131, faizlerin hafif y\u00fckselmesiyle PBoC\u2019nin gev\u015feme ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri azalt\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Societe Generale, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u00c7in PMI verilerinin yava\u015f ama istikrarl\u0131 bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti\u011fini ve bunun PBoC\u2019nin (\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131) politika gev\u015fetme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Resmi imalat PMI haziranda 50,0\u2019den 50,3\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI 50,1\u2019den 50,2\u2019ye s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 artt\u0131. FX taraf\u0131nda, ABD NFP verisinin beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan USD\/CNY 6,7938\u2019deki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden alt\u0131na gerilerken, \u00f6zel RatingDog imalat PMI verisi \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci ayda da geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n

Yuan\u0131n 1Y26\u2019daki g\u00fcc\u00fc, k\u00fcresel yapay zek\u00e2 (AI) patlamas\u0131n\u0131n da k\u0131smen destekledi\u011fi diren\u00e7li ihracatla ili\u015fkilendirildi. Ticaret cephesinde AB\u2019nin ticaretten sorumlu yetkilisi Maros Sefcovic ile ticaret bakan\u0131 Wang Wentao Br\u00fcksel\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yaparken, ticaret a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 CEFTS RMB Endeksi Temmuz 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Dikkatler ay\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde yap\u0131lacak Politb\u00fcro toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evrilirken, NDRC bankalara y\u00fcksek getirili yuan ve USD tahvillerinin arac\u0131l\u0131k\/y\u00fckleniminde (underwriting) ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131yla fonlama \u00fczerindeki g\u00f6zetimi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00c7in devlet tahvili (CGB) getirisi bu hafta 3 bp artarak %1,75\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Yuan G\u00fcc\u00fc, Politika G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Faizler<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca izlenecek ana trendin yuan\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son ABD istihdam raporunda i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselmesiyle dolar genel olarak zay\u0131flad\u0131; bu da yuan\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na daha fazla alan a\u00e7t\u0131. USD\/CNH\u2019nin y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyesi olan 6,75 civar\u0131n\u0131 test etmesi halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayacak opsiyonlara bak\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n

Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n sab\u0131rl\u0131 duru\u015fu, temmuz sonundaki Politb\u00fcro toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde dramatik politika s\u00fcrprizleri beklemedi\u011fimiz anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu nedenle USD\/CNH opsiyonlar\u0131nda z\u0131mni volatilite yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5\u2019e gerileyerek, y\u0131l\u0131n bu d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere indi. Bu da y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon almak isteyenler i\u00e7in dolara kar\u015f\u0131 yuan lehine put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rece ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirisinin %1,75\u2019e toparlanmas\u0131yla, merkez bankas\u0131ndan yeni bir gev\u015feme hamlesi konusunda temkinliyiz. Piyasa, yaln\u0131zca bir ay \u00f6nce beklenen en az bir adet tam 10 baz puanl\u0131k faiz indirimini fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Getirilerde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak veya buna oynayabilmek i\u00e7in \u00c7in devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u00fcz.<\/p>\n

Sekt\u00f6rel Ayr\u0131\u015fma ve \u0130\u015flem F\u0131rsatlar\u0131<\/h3>\n

AI destekli ihracat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ile i\u00e7 ekonomi aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma, kilit bir tema haline geliyor. May\u0131stan bu yana teknoloji ve yar\u0131 iletken a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek STAR 50 Endeksi, daha geni\u015f CSI 300 Endeksi\u2019ni yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Bu trendi yakalamak i\u00e7in opsiyonlarla bir \u201cpair trade\u201d kurgusunun\u2014teknoloji odakl\u0131 bir ETF\u2019te al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun (long call) pozisyon ve finansallar ya da gayrimenkul ETF\u2019inde k\u0131sa e\u011filimli pozisyonlar\u2014kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in PMI\u2019lar\u0131ndaki toparlanma PBoC gev\u015feme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131rken, zay\u0131f ABD NFP dolar\/yuan\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 itiyor. AI destekli ihracat yuan\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor; tahvil getirileri y\u00fckseliyor, Politb\u00fcro \u00f6ncesi volatilite dipte.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50289,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50638","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50638"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50638\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50638"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50638"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50638"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}