USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan zay\u0131f ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisinin ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan be\u015f haftad\u0131r ilk kez haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6neldi. Ancak parite, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in faiz patikas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dengelendi. Son olarak 0,8034 civar\u0131nda neredeyse yatay seyrederken, 0,8010\u2019a kadar gerilemi\u015fti. ABD Dolar Endeksi ise g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,61 dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 100,84 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. USD sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131, istihdam verisindeki sapman\u0131n Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ziyade zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6teledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Enflasyonun, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 son h\u0131zlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle para politikas\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde revize edildi: CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda hamle olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veri \u00f6ncesi %63\u2019ten %53\u2019e \u00e7ekti; aral\u0131k olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise %76 seviyesinde. Dikkat, ABD\u2013\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla tetiklenen y\u00fckseli\u015fin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc petrol\u00fcn geri vermesiyle enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon riskleri azal\u0131rken, bu ay\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak haziran T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evriliyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re cephesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) faizi %0\u2019da tutaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini desteklerken, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 CHF de\u011ferlenmesini s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r duru\u015funu korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Gelecek haftan\u0131n g\u00fcndemi ABD ISM Hizmet PMI ve Fed tutanaklar\u0131; \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019den ise herhangi bir veri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n—\n
Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan ABD istihdam raporunun ard\u0131ndan USD\/CHF\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen son geri \u00e7ekilmeyi bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici bir dip olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha fazla sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalamamas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fahin bir Fed beklentisini korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu d\u00fczeltme, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda yeniden dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne oynayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in olas\u0131 bir giri\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n, haziranda ABD ekonomisinin yaln\u0131zca 155 bin istihdam yarat\u0131p 210 binlik beklentiyi ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verisine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki verdi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, temmuzda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %25\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de, kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar art\u0131\u015f ihtimali %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. Bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zay\u0131f veriyi Fed\u2019in bir sonraki ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 iptal eden de\u011fil, erteleyen bir unsur olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Dolar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirleyici ba\u015fl\u0131k, temmuz ortas\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verisi olacak. \u00c7ekirdek enflasyon son \u00e7eyrekte %3,1 civar\u0131nda diren\u00e7li seyrederken, gelecek raporda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekerek USD\u2019yi destekleyebilir. Bu nedenle s\u00f6z konusu veri etraf\u0131nda olas\u0131 volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekir.<\/p>\n—\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda, SNB g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funa ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Haziran ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyon verisi %1,4 ile y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede geldi ve bu, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e yaratm\u0131yor. \u015eahin Fed ile n\u00f6tr SNB aras\u0131ndaki artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD\/CHF i\u00e7in temel destek unsurunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortam, USD\/CHF\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, yukar\u0131 potansiyelin ise daha belirgin oldu\u011fu stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. ABD T\u00dcFE verisi sonras\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir toparlanmadan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. SNB\u2019nin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 frank de\u011ferlenmesini engellemeye d\u00f6n\u00fck \u00f6rt\u00fck iste\u011fi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, kilit desteklerin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da prim toplamak i\u00e7in etkili bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n